Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3fc097269a37e192b5aa31cef673776ca9780637fe8f83e150d663b0afd7f33

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $433,062
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $289,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $433,062 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	0c	51,245$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.24	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,884$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	9,916$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.18	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	7,300$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.4	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	0c	6,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	5,195$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.43	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	5,044$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.45	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf59a…feeabacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	7c	4,761$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.26	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f11…af68backed Yes	5c	4,200$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	3,203$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.71	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,833$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.25	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	2,819$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.51	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,804$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.78	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,520$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.51	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,169$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.37	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	4c	2,084$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.64	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	2,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	1,988$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.3	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	1,950$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.98	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	1,933$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.26	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0146…5ddebacked Yes	5c	1,913$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b29…f712backed Yes	1c	1,727$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	+114.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92d7…f210backed Yes	2c	1,546$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.63	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	4c	1,417$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	9c	1,314$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.94	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	2c	1,311$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.38	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	6c	1,266$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.14	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,257$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.95	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	6c	1,200$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.6	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes	7c	1,144$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	85	27.1%23 W · 62 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,118$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.1	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a0…8b9ebacked Yes	2c	1,040$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,021$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.36	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	7c	999.94$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	1c	956.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbc7…e1febacked Yes	1c	953.96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe158…8538backed Yes	6c	929.92$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	918.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.72	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…efe1backed Yes	1c	899.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	52	17.3%9 W · 43 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	4c	884.25$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	850$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	1c	833.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	7c	828.36$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.99	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	1c	817.51$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de9…ed09backed Yes	7c	817$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.19	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	7c	812.14$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.85	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Yes	6c	800$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	798.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.93	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	783.64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc89…f708backed Yes	2c	710.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	4c	700$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.7	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes	5c	699.95$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc976…4525backed Yes	2c	664.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	28cpaid	-90.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	7c	654.88$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.29	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	633.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	9c	600.11$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.31	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	5c	600$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3516…ea50backed Yes	2c	595.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	3c	503.11$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	2c	500.05$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.96	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	459.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.47	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	8c	437.5$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	389.13$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.02	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac66…5847backed Yes	9c	351.89$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.67	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	5c	323.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	8c	316$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.28	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	9c	311.11$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	5c	281.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	6c	269.14$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.15	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd4…1b34backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	5c	224.55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e2…4e5cbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b4…72d0backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4396…f0e1backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc853…cdedbacked Yes	7c	192.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+32%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	10c	166.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	159.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcac0…893dbacked Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x184e…e8fabacked Yes	7c	148.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+226.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	10c	140$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event