Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2c69ba44484010f8749a2d049ee3c5e0fbc39b3a57a07e962f84473be8060e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $591,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $558,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $591,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 348 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 1c | 55,101$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.15 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…a843backed No | 6c | 31,144$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.65 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 68c | 18,763$12,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,776.61 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 16c | 13,122$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,053.92 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 13c | 12,815$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,144.24 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f3…3a31backed No | 35c | 11,973$4,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,209.92 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a17…01c3backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 35c | 10,362$3,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,695.12 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Yes | 11c | 9,602$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,572.28 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 16c | 5,714$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,814.17 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed No | 1c | 4,923$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 7c | 4,825$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,463.2 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 49c | 4,075$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.11 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 13c | 3,983$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,445.35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 6c | 3,763$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,525.89 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…055bbacked Yes | 79c | 3,713$2,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 3,215$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,023.85 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 3,184$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,917.37 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 3,002$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,837.12 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 21c | 2,988$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,365.23 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 50c | 2,723$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.69 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 11c | 2,641$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,342.85 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 45c | 2,537$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.69 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 11c | 2,536$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,263.67 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…6129backed No | 1c | 2,480$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,382$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,236.48 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820c…379dbacked Yes | 46c | 2,245$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 50c | 2,228$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.59 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 20c | 2,226$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.97 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 10c | 2,182$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.85 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,030$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,914.46 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…393bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,014$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.63 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 1,629$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.39 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,625$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.08 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 36c | 1,600$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 7c | 1,600$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.98 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c8…2257backed No | 79c | 1,590$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.78 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes | 30c | 1,550$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.54 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbf…dffebacked Yes | 13c | 1,548$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 72c | 1,502$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.82 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.76 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab46…4233backed Yes | 26c | 1,489$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +181.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd767…7c84backed Yes | 22c | 1,454$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.51 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 10c | 1,440$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.43 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 9c | 1,433$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.62 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 1,419$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.57 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,333$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.18 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,282$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.25 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,270$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.96 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed No | 72c | 1,260$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 77cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 13c | 1,247$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.47 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,237$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.08 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes | 9c | 1,233$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.33 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 19c | 1,233$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.89 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 10c | 1,225$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.46 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.99 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 8c | 1,190$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.75 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Yes | 22c | 1,181$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.17 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce7…04eebacked Yes | 19c | 1,166$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.19 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc44…5309backed Yes | 20c | 1,148$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 8c | 1,147$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.71 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 1,128$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.94 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 19c | 1,096$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.36 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…24a8backed Yes | 12c | 1,095$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a01…01cebacked Yes | 69c | 1,087$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.26 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,020$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.4 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 1,009$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.21 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 24c | 1,003$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.39 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 11c | 1,001$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.77 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.71 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.19 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 66c | 959.99$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a9…6571backed No | 77c | 908.29$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 11c | 908.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.19 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 867.26$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.46 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 7c | 854.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.26 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…5946backed Yes | 48c | 833.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 5c | 833.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.66 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 9cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d1…2206backed Yes | 10c | 809.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.66 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 799.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.98 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 7c | 789.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.72 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 64c | 783.72$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 27cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 62c | 781.15$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.45 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…85f9backed Yes | 26c | 775.49$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked No | 71c | 767.88$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.8 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 14c | 755.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.07 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 21c | 744.44$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.44 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed No | 70c | 729.62$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 8c | 722$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.58 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 12c | 698.49$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.49 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 685.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.98 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…6f6cbacked Yes | 49c | 682.33$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 18c | 665.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.27 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 14c | 649.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.14 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…6369backed Yes | 12c | 641.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.21 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…66dfbacked Yes | 20c | 634.59$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked Yes | 21c | 633.49$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.49 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 50c | 626.58$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.58 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.