Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a3c42306fb384a3f4517e55ce7478145c289c8e2e64be79baa24ab4fd0f0dd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $339,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $299,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 26,063$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.54 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…7596backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b2…a5abbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 12c | 8,461$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.08 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 16c | 8,243$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.84 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 22c | 7,439$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.98 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…1cc2backed Yes | 10c | 6,955$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 8c | 6,726$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.95 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e8…db25backed Yes | 5c | 4,950$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.1 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 20c | 4,545$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.16 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,700$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,858$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.62 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked No | 71c | 2,848$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.05 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 30c | 2,471$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.2 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 2c | 2,250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 27c | 2,203$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.44 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 15c | 2,129$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.82 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 77c | 2,124$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.76 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…872bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,939$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.19 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed No | 73c | 1,929$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.6 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,898$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.58 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 23c | 1,720$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.45 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 10c | 1,718$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.39 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 14c | 1,708$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.73 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 31c | 1,624$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.09 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,546$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,525$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.47 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 28c | 1,516$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.92 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 22c | 1,500$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.49 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 15c | 1,400$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.5 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,356$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.67 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,329$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.06 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 73c | 1,293$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.96 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 28c | 1,276$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.76 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 72c | 1,221$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.3 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 1,128$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.57 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 1,062$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.65 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked No | 76c | 1,010$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.01 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 27c | 999.96$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 28c | 997.33$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 73c | 935.28$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.78 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 9c | 929.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 12c | 900$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 867.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 69c | 849.98$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…393bbacked Yes | 30c | 840.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.87 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 30c | 822.46$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.51 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 819.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 73c | 799.97$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.99 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 27c | 762.25$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.25 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 28c | 714.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 74c | 704.96$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.29 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 8c | 699.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 72c | 699.96$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.99 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…bf7bbacked No | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 77c | 654.63$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.83 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 30c | 650.66$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.22 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed Yes | 34c | 645.66$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed No | 79c | 639.09$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.53 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 10c | 603.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 147 | 18.4%27 W · 120 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…0645backed No | 77c | 588$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 28c | 575.9$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 24c | 550$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 29c | 518.07$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…7778backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 16c | 499.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked Yes | 30c | 498.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 471.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.15 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 21c | 467.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 28c | 450$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…ad1bbacked Yes | 20c | 442.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 27c | 389.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 21c | 387.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes | 9c | 376.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 31c | 355.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 29c | 349.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes | 29c | 346.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…249fbacked No | 75c | 342.7$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes | 32c | 340.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 28c | 339.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 29c | 335.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 30c | 333.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 31c | 325.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 19c | 322.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed No | 75c | 317.51$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab8…c3b0backed Yes | 32c | 312.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 32c | 311.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 29c | 302.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 194 | 8.8%17 W · 177 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbf…dffebacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.