Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34687e3d176dc89ddad9a6653367d1972ba275e60a09efffbfaaced4ad2ca988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 35,043$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.69 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 11,134$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.98 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,485$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 9,678$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.16 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 9,110$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.23 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 2c | 8,281$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 1c | 8,036$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 2c | 6,863$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc44…5309backed Yes | 3c | 6,536$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 0c | 6,459$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 1c | 6,304$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…0f1abacked Yes | 1c | 4,869$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 1c | 4,815$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,062$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,714$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed20…41d4backed Yes | 1c | 2,554$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 1c | 2,462$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,355$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace1…923bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…943abacked Yes | 2c | 2,176$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 1c | 1,565$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 2c | 1,529$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…5001backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,187$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…ad1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,124$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 2c | 1,093$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,082$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 2c | 1,037$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,005$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…a88bbacked Yes | 3c | 999.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 2c | 945.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 2c | 905.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Yes | 2c | 902.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 1c | 888.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 2c | 878.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e3…3a62backed Yes | 7c | 840$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…06f0backed Yes | 4c | 795.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 2c | 793.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 111 | 8.1%9 W · 102 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…8669backed Yes | 3c | 771.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 702.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 135 | 6.7%9 W · 126 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 3c | 576.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 3c | 539.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…addcbacked Yes | 2c | 521.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 3c | 498.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…b5d4backed Yes | 6c | 422.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes | 13c | 314.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd1…870ebacked Yes | 6c | 230$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes | 5c | 220$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 7c | 199.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.