Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1686ef867e3fea526de91f7b739fe4157d29f1065eced0f5234674f5c7b1348d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 33,310$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.46 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 13,702$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.75 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,665$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…8a25backed Yes | 0c | 10,580$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 3c | 10,331$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.39 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 8,440$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 7,258$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 2c | 5,984$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.56 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 3c | 5,714$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.06 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc823…528abacked Yes | 0c | 5,682$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa16…0b36backed Yes | 1c | 4,575$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 0c | 4,082$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4638…489fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,935$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 2,255$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.95 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.07 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 1,752$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…5001backed Yes | 13c | 1,600$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06e…e923backed Yes | 7c | 1,173$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…6414backed Yes | 14c | 1,145$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 15c | 999.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 12c | 999.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5c…1e57backed Yes | 7c | 900$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 769.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 11c | 731.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 723.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 699.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 11c | 673$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1898…7863backed Yes | 3c | 669.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 667.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 11c | 613.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 11c | 612.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 111 | 8.1%9 W · 102 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 10c | 602.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 593.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7507…3452backed Yes | 15c | 506.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +892%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed Yes | 16c | 499.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes | 12c | 481$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 10c | 466.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 15c | 441.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…9fd1backed Yes | 11c | 436.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…a249backed Yes | 5c | 429.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 425.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes | 11c | 417.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 6c | 399.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 11c | 399.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 16c | 350.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 194 | 8.8%17 W · 177 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 16c | 315.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 161 | 19.9%32 W · 129 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 13c | 299.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 11c | 273.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 12c | 254.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 17c | 243.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…ad1bbacked Yes | 5c | 241.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 13c | 239$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 13c | 224.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…8669backed Yes | 14c | 208.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bf…4a80backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6faa…787bbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf78a…9f65backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 133 | 12.8%17 W · 116 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 9c | 187.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 135 | 6.7%9 W · 126 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 14c | 176$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed6…9720backed Yes | 13c | 155.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 10c | 151.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…c9afbacked Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 77 | 13%10 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 14c | 145.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c0…e408backed Yes | 11c | 124.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 122.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa876…2397backed Yes | 17c | 120.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 11c | 119.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…6edbbacked Yes | 13c | 117.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 18c | 114.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec51…c132backed Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 13c | 105.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a8…9572backed Yes | 15c | 101.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe532…28f2backed Yes | 14c | 99.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021f…09cbbacked Yes | 14c | 96.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…c4b5backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 17c | 69.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.