Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb560a903495d77c1265f8b21011449424d1c8f3260d26690cbf1383e6c886fb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $249,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $232,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 21,358$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.55 | 1,083 | 8.2%89 W · 994 L | +28.5wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 3c | 9,890$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.49 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,710$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 1c | 5,366$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 5,056$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 809 | 11.1%90 W · 719 L | +29.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 4c | 5,040$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.52 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 4,472$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.29 | 1,799 | 7.4%133 W · 1,666 L | -24.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 4,088$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.47 | 1,062 | 13.7%145 W · 917 L | +38.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 29c | 2,825$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.38 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,821$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 2,181 | 3.9%85 W · 2,096 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,332$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 18c | 1,934$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.59 | 117 | 10.3%12 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 7c | 1,878$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.49 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0587…e3b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,713$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…a249backed Yes | 2c | 1,657$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed20…41d4backed Yes | 25c | 1,627$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 1,560$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 2,576 | 13.2%339 W · 2,237 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,393$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 574 | 29.6%170 W · 404 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 1,340$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.69 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 2c | 1,304$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed Yes | 1c | 1,181$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 29c | 999.91$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.6 | 426 | 10.6%45 W · 381 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 78c | 902.23$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 899.97$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.99 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 12c | 830.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 73c | 799.99$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 19c | 788.12$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 786.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 435 | 5.1%22 W · 413 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…b841backed Yes | 23c | 767.59$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 72c | 763$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.14 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 26c | 756.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 22c | 750.12$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 74c | 713.72$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.92 | 127 | 28.3%36 W · 91 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 707.26$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.52 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe258…be54backed Yes | 1c | 700.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 73c | 699.99$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 27c | 699.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed Yes | 33c | 613.32$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 4c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 570.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1,209 | 8.7%105 W · 1,104 L | +31.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa876…2397backed Yes | 12c | 561.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed Yes | 5c | 559.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 10c | 517.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 654 | 11%72 W · 582 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…ad1bbacked Yes | 6c | 516.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 71c | 504.6$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 21c | 500.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d60dbacked Yes | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…872bbacked Yes | 4c | 499.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78a…9f65backed Yes | 17c | 470$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 133 | 12.8%17 W · 116 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 11c | 450$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 194 | 8.8%17 W · 177 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…5001backed Yes | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 442.45$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd9…e2afbacked Yes | 20c | 440$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…b4cebacked No | 79c | 439.99$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…c9afbacked Yes | 15c | 400$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 77 | 13%10 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…0d42backed Yes | 13c | 385.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 22c | 376.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 4c | 373.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…e152backed Yes | 22c | 329.12$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 32c | 314.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 21c | 313.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 161 | 19.9%32 W · 129 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…9fd1backed Yes | 17c | 292.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 283.75$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 10c | 276.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5c…1e57backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 28c | 249.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Yes | 24c | 247.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d0…5074backed Yes | 20c | 245.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 21c | 237.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…56fabacked Yes | 28c | 212.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…7beabacked Yes | 27c | 211.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +237.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ac…5687backed Yes | 24c | 210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb631…8a87backed Yes | 20c | 207.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 89 | 16.9%15 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 20.4%39 W · 152 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bf…4a80backed Yes | 23c | 195.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed No | 76c | 190.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 11c | 182.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes | 8c | 179.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 31c | 172.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed37…5748backed Yes | 29c | 171.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…a9e6backed Yes | 16c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 26c | 154.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 15c | 150.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…f27dbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00a…da1bbacked No | 73c | 137.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 15c | 129.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked No | 75c | 124.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.