Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb667e66ca582b9ceb69d5e56b48e5c554a2022ca3187da8b9a3a4dcf611d9261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $310,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $324,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 364 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc5c…9776backed Yes | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 29c | 11,384$3,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,245.47 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…78d9backed No | 57c | 7,700$4,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,311 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…8623backed Yes | 43c | 7,700$3,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,311 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 32c | 7,044$2,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280.54 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fe…d85cbacked Yes | 43c | 6,900$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d66…e8a7backed No | 57c | 6,900$3,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,967 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 4c | 5,246$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 13c | 5,043$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.78 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.03 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…06edbacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 37c | 3,202$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.62 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 11c | 2,726$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 32c | 2,690$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.98 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 51c | 2,516$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.71 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 2,432$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.4 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 61c | 2,432$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.32 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 36c | 2,176$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.13 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,155$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.67 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 29c | 2,078$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.06 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…851fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,056$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 38c | 2,049$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.53 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 39c | 2,043$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.42 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 6c | 1,943$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 45c | 1,887$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 73c | 1,835$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.54 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 24c | 1,800$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked No | 69c | 1,766$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.64 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…d8a0backed Yes | 38c | 1,500$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,500$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.44 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 43c | 1,453$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.09 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 1,406$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.28 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 37c | 1,400$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.74 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 72c | 1,361$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.22 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 37c | 1,340$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.75 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Yes | 43c | 1,312$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.56 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 68c | 1,241$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.07 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 60c | 1,238$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.02 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…9218backed No | 78c | 1,192$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.29 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked No | 51c | 1,120$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed No | 61c | 1,062$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.8 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…9175backed No | 77c | 1,060$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,032$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.07 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…dde9backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a58…7e08backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 9.3%13 W · 127 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +642.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fda…147ebacked Yes | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 26c | 999.99$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…6469backed Yes | 35c | 962.79$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 26c | 950$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 50c | 941.24$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.94 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 54c | 922.14$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 50c | 919$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.77 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 41c | 877.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.51 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed No | 66c | 859.43$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.23 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 22c | 847.95$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 38c | 830$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.67 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1606…0ba6backed Yes | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 100 | 21%21 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 22c | 769.08$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.96 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed No | 80c | 743.45$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.58 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes | 38c | 742.72$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.76 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 67c | 707.35$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.16 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…f8d1backed Yes | 32c | 684.77$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.07 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…34edbacked Yes | 42c | 670.65$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Yes | 36c | 638.03$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 57c | 636.58$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.17 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…714fbacked No | 48c | 633.11$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde61…b063backed Yes | 53c | 629.1$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 40c | 603.1$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 28c | 558.01$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…f6ebbacked No | 67c | 550$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…f9d6backed No | 70c | 549.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked No | 74c | 542.05$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.71 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 41c | 538.23$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.09 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…51c2backed Yes | 38c | 531.63$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…8538backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 31c | 499.66$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.27 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 59c | 460.27$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.63 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed No | 76c | 459.35$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.37 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +66%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…ca8bbacked No | 45c | 444.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.42 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 3c | 444$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 41c | 438.51$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.2 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…bf7bbacked Yes | 62c | 438.14$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…9cbbbacked No | 52c | 430.84$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…c959backed Yes | 59c | 427.15$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 16c | 424.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…afb0backed No | 44c | 424.67$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 28c | 420.16$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 58c | 418.57$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.47 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 36c | 416.62$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.92 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 22c | 402.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 22c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…14e8backed Yes | 40c | 386.49$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 30c | 381.79$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c85…10f3backed Yes | 53c | 379.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…0567backed Yes | 42c | 373.38$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.