Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd46eddc5b1372369837f31e24f14517316287bb629a6934a309d4d05cf831a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $885,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $760,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $885,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 414 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 16c | 79,670$12,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,644.93 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 26,647$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.6 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 63c | 22,835$14,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,440.77 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…523cbacked Yes | 0c | 16,177$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 8c | 12,891$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.92 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 3c | 10,154$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.86 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0055…156fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…fef9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 8,709$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.88 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 27c | 8,137$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.32 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 5c | 8,137$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.15 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 25c | 7,663$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.7 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 1c | 7,514$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 7,281$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.26 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 2c | 6,331$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.32 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…addcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,028$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 29c | 5,811$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.06 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 26c | 5,197$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.25 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 32c | 5,020$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.42 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 79c | 4,845$3,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.8 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 24c | 4,656$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.83 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 20c | 4,567$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.8 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 15c | 4,482$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,427$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.48 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 68c | 4,285$2,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.92 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 4,211$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 4,161$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…9c64backed Yes | 0c | 4,118$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 4c | 4,034$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.61 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 37c | 4,025$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.92 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 31c | 3,972$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.18 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 3,897$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.37 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 22c | 3,754$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 17c | 3,674$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.05 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed No | 73c | 3,535$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.99 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 3,484$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.56 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 29c | 3,466$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.54 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 3,463$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…e08fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,462$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…6369backed Yes | 3c | 3,388$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,303$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 4c | 3,287$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 10c | 3,200$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.5 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,040$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed No | 76c | 3,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked No | 75c | 2,993$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.76 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…0b00backed Yes | 2c | 2,983$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb52…67ccbacked No | 72c | 2,951$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +251.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…acf2backed Yes | 3c | 2,855$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,842$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.73 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 2,743$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.02 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 35c | 2,640$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.19 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,350$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.66 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 59c | 2,262$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.85 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 1c | 2,158$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 19c | 2,128$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.57 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a2…f592backed Yes | 10c | 2,072$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…4b41backed Yes | 12c | 2,039$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…bdbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,029$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68f…8d49backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed Yes | 28c | 1,977$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes | 29c | 1,975$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.16 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 72c | 1,959$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.1 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…e58ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,950$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,930$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…ba8abacked Yes | 18c | 1,901$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.14 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 4c | 1,842$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd11…6afebacked No | 61c | 1,822$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe582…ae36backed Yes | 1c | 1,819$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,778$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,770$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…f662backed Yes | 5c | 1,762$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 7c | 1,756$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.95 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…f87cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,698$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,668$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.96 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b1…a338backed Yes | 13c | 1,642$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,637$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,607$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd9…1dc7backed Yes | 2c | 1,583$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,555$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 35c | 1,551$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.09 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 4c | 1,529$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 9c | 1,511$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 10c | 1,509$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.31 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 2c | 1,506$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e14…2cc3backed Yes | 6c | 1,493$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes | 17c | 1,467$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.1 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,373$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,371$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed Yes | 39c | 1,362$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.33 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 1,350$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.07 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,346$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…3332backed Yes | 3c | 1,337$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1116…5ca3backed Yes | 26c | 1,302$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed No | 69c | 1,300$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 5c | 1,252$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 14c | 1,244$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.44 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c3…ef3ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,215$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.