Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3f1961b615add6d781b437af739c3704243e2faf9d3dc57fe16d4f8094518e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $617,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $496,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $617,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 420 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 1c | 64,207$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.11 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…b4cebacked Yes | 0c | 50,823$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 6c | 23,712$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.99 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe390…73ffbacked Yes | 0c | 18,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 5c | 17,166$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.32 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 8c | 16,181$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.42 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 4c | 11,333$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.17 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc64…b9f4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 9,391$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.1 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 14c | 8,145$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.38 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…c4b9backed Yes | 0c | 7,099$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 8c | 6,823$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.16 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 13c | 6,617$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.14 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,300$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 6c | 5,894$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.21 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 5,762$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.35 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 14c | 5,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf758…3731backed Yes | 14c | 4,594$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 11c | 4,226$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.59 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 60c | 4,208$2,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.04 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 25c | 4,151$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.49 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,117$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.85 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 16c | 3,997$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.89 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 20c | 3,912$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.61 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2540…46aabacked Yes | 0c | 3,768$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 11c | 3,391$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.52 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 3,375$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 17c | 2,900$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.33 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 2,780$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 4c | 2,773$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…f192backed Yes | 8c | 2,689$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.97 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 9c | 2,640$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.84 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 2,400$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 17c | 2,371$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…76bebacked Yes | 3c | 2,368$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 2,251$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.69 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 2,136$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,097$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes | 28c | 2,091$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 76c | 2,023$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.34 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 52c | 2,001$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.54 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.99 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 27c | 1,934$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.78 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…00c4backed Yes | 3c | 1,863$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 17c | 1,850$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.75 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…baa9backed Yes | 4c | 1,841$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 17c | 1,797$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.67 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…cf54backed Yes | 29c | 1,551$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.47 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,550$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 8c | 1,544$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.09 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 35c | 1,542$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.61 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd4…1b34backed Yes | 7c | 1,520$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,492$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…94f8backed Yes | 8c | 1,465$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…53bcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 188 | 8%15 W · 173 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +86%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 6c | 1,397$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,297$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes | 26c | 1,200$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.91 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,143$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,100$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7a…3b91backed Yes | 34c | 1,058$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.33 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 1,058$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.77 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…08ffbacked Yes | 20c | 1,044$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.19 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 13c | 1,040$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…bf9dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,021$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60d…4e95backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…6ad6backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 41c | 999.99$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 41c | 999.44$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.54 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Yes | 51c | 984.83$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 20c | 975.67$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…8669backed Yes | 28c | 951.76$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 6c | 939.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 11c | 916.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes | 16c | 914.7$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 33c | 900$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 13c | 894.9$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed Yes | 4c | 891.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…ce3ebacked Yes | 38c | 884.56$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed No | 68c | 883.28$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.28 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 13c | 881.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 26c | 876.06$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.13 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 869.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 5c | 864.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 33c | 855.49$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 9c | 836.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba28…4da2backed No | 65c | 800$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes | 6c | 797.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +90%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 13c | 762.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +108%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 8c | 758.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 71c | 699.98$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.