Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb87966bed91ac309a8d1d42d8178298cbe0cd38a1a228bd693bdd99077457312
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 43,272$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.06 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 14,342$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.33 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,332$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…0a12backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 1c | 6,951$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 5,819$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.57 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,487$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 0c | 4,226$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 3c | 2,817$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 2,451$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 8c | 2,432$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 1c | 2,403$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 6c | 2,309$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…08ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,171$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 3c | 1,950$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 158 | 20.9%33 W · 125 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 4c | 1,913$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…ce3ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,800$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,762$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,543$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,492$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed Yes | 15c | 1,492$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.8 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 11c | 1,365$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.48 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,288$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3d9fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,149$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bf…4a80backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 3c | 1,096$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03c…6b63backed Yes | 2c | 1,094$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec2…59e6backed Yes | 4c | 1,067$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 3c | 1,027$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 9c | 1,002$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 907.83$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.55 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…cf54backed Yes | 12c | 900.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…acf8backed Yes | 3c | 839$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 15c | 820.4$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.83 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…772dbacked Yes | 16c | 684$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…7778backed Yes | 14c | 596.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 10c | 570.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 135 | 6.7%9 W · 126 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 6c | 550$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…d5d7backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +193.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbf…dffebacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 496.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…23a2backed Yes | 14c | 492$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…ae53backed Yes | 12c | 491.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 475.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 14c | 468$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 12c | 455.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 3c | 447.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 418.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 409.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 12c | 404.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 111 | 8.1%9 W · 102 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 377.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 24c | 340.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 17c | 329.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…8a12backed Yes | 8c | 313.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 24c | 312.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 161 | 19.9%32 W · 129 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 10c | 299.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479a…4080backed Yes | 4c | 267$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…5fd0backed Yes | 15c | 249.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 20c | 244.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 235.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes | 13c | 228.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 223$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 12c | 216.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…9328backed Yes | 23c | 192.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace1…923bbacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…a285backed Yes | 21c | 188.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5738…d513backed Yes | 11c | 181.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 80c | 169.46$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe21c…9002backed Yes | 19c | 167.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +239.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 194 | 8.8%17 W · 177 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…5103backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4e…2004backed Yes | 15c | 149.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…c9afbacked Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 77 | 13%10 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 70c | 138.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 135.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 24c | 123.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…0645backed No | 80c | 122.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f35…2c62backed Yes | 18c | 114.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d1…7422backed Yes | 11c | 112.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4250…5c32backed Yes | 27c | 110.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 14c | 102.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a69…3d57backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…b8f0backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 62 | 12.9%8 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa544…3315backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.