Middle East · resolved market
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ef91f30a2747ddf7569a00ac8e98b783ed883dc317b7ce7c1d9d7cf8abaaaa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $287,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $280,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 5c | 33,808$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.9 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…0f89backed Yes | 6c | 28,977$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 5c | 17,270$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.4 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 5c | 17,069$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.72 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 14c | 15,230$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.31 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 15c | 9,171$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.07 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 6c | 6,035$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 5c | 4,773$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.69 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 9c | 4,651$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.34 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 11c | 4,340$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 8c | 3,223$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.87 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 7c | 3,078$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…19a3backed Yes | 11c | 2,892$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 11c | 2,671$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.22 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…0bd8backed Yes | 10c | 2,553$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.35 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -7.7wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 10c | 2,404$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.23 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 2,329$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,233$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,967$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e70…9b0dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,864$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ac…cb52backed Yes | 9c | 1,715$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,664$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 14c | 1,662$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3732…4ecabacked Yes | 8c | 1,507$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…f1c2backed Yes | 3c | 1,455$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 6c | 1,407$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,393$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 1,311$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,285$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 1,009$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 977.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 911.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77d…f4d5backed Yes | 10c | 853$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 5c | 785.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 745.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…d642backed Yes | 9c | 728.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed Yes | 10c | 719.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 719.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 12c | 632.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…2134backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27c0…89d2backed Yes | 15c | 467.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 10c | 415.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 11c | 400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160c…8e91backed Yes | 5c | 398.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +373.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 393.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 11c | 375.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 373.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…806fbacked Yes | 8c | 327.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…6b17backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…4839backed Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…8385backed Yes | 13c | 176.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 16c | 102.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 101$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 11c | 97.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab6…4cdbbacked Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…35c3backed Yes | 19c | 73.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…79bcbacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?this page
- Odds of Khamenei out by February over 50% in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.