Middle East · resolved market
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 50% in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d181539539db729c9a7d64ca6a8408e9bcfe3f0a1b34006b3080b83251abc42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 8c | 11,284$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.49 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf8…638fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,297$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 3,222$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 4c | 2,962$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.29 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,930$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.61 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 7c | 2,413$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…f1c2backed Yes | 2c | 2,406$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 7c | 2,381$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 2,248$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…1e99backed Yes | 6c | 2,178$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,767$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 5c | 1,420$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,337$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,325$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 5c | 1,202$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77d…f4d5backed Yes | 7c | 1,143$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,072$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 7c | 1,048$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…534abacked Yes | 3c | 1,021$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,005$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 969.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 916.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 869.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 2c | 471.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…d642backed Yes | 11c | 346.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 325.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…d877backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 269.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…7151backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 190.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6475…5f32backed Yes | 19c | 157.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 80c | 144.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Khamenei out by February over 50% in January?this page
- Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.