Fed Rates · resolved market
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72f2eafdddbe76af4dc3add2f0f8aff93520400d423b347655c2eaa10d0f099f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $995,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $963,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $995,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 26,655$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.63 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d29…34cdbacked Yes | 1c | 24,584$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 23,352$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.23 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 20,879$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.31 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…d282backed Yes | 9c | 20,241$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de2…4c07backed Yes | 1c | 15,765$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cc…aee3backed Yes | 1c | 15,743$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…f99fbacked Yes | 5c | 14,487$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 9,259$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.69 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c83…0f55backed Yes | 7c | 9,190$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -71%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cc…f578backed Yes | 3c | 8,667$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b3…c5eabacked Yes | 7c | 8,215$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 2c | 7,938$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 7,473$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.92 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 7,067$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.96 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 6,827$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.27 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 6,782$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.76 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked Yes | 4c | 6,387$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…113fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,263$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 5,072$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.71 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…1021backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.84 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…82cabacked Yes | 4c | 4,942$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…723dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,899$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 4,843$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.76 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…18f6backed Yes | 4c | 4,285$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 4,112$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…2926backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363f…ee04backed Yes | 2c | 3,955$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes | 7c | 3,946$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0769…b502backed Yes | 3c | 3,832$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…b148backed Yes | 1c | 3,661$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf5…5067backed Yes | 2c | 3,649$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 3,558$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…2622backed Yes | 1c | 3,555$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,533$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 3,520$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…33adbacked Yes | 0c | 3,422$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b59…5443backed Yes | 0c | 3,422$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…a26bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,422$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 3,386$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.22 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,359$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…363cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,345$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c0…a58abacked Yes | 7c | 3,315$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…1799backed Yes | 3c | 2,894$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,740$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 2,686$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,685$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 2,621$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x452e…6191backed Yes | 4c | 2,565$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,508$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…410bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…d551backed Yes | 7c | 2,365$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed Yes | 5c | 2,356$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 2,295$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…814dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,236$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…e28fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,205$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…5122backed Yes | 5c | 2,150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…980bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,113$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…177dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,077$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…f61fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,976$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…a367backed Yes | 5c | 1,874$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…2d13backed Yes | 5c | 1,837$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…36a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,834$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc06b…ef68backed Yes | 6c | 1,762$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…8999backed Yes | 6c | 1,753$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…b548backed Yes | 6c | 1,668$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d1…e22ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,511$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,502$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,486$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…76dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,352$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 3c | 1,346$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 1,270$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9570…8cd8backed Yes | 4c | 1,253$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…3808backed Yes | 4c | 1,220$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,220$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…f60bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,211$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…2a73backed Yes | 6c | 1,170$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9ae1backed Yes | 5c | 1,163$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5688…9f32backed Yes | 5c | 1,130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…3a18backed Yes | 8c | 1,082$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d3…ce57backed Yes | 6c | 1,032$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…fe91backed Yes | 4c | 1,028$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 10c | 1,021$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…d0b6backed Yes | 10c | 1,012$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0a…7898backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…5114backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 2c | 998.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…a3a3backed Yes | 4c | 978.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf45c…d320backed Yes | 5c | 947.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…172fbacked Yes | 4c | 940$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…b1f4backed Yes | 6c | 916.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?this page
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?No won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.