Fed Rates · resolved market
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf305528c5dbf4f080f8d96ec4fb2047c89aec3923bcce237eb4238e9dd588a09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $538,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $532,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $538,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 1c | 52,981$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked No | 7c | 24,200$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 19c | 18,469$3,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,592.69 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 5c | 13,055$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…a9d4backed No | 36c | 11,750$4,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,238.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 13c | 11,229$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 21c | 9,613$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 7c | 9,300$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…2760backed No | 4c | 8,407$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 19c | 8,000$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525.74 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…082abacked Yes | 57c | 7,496$4,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,214.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 73c | 7,129$5,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 5c | 6,452$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 6c | 6,348$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.15 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 28c | 5,951$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.14 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 16c | 4,996$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.87 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 3c | 4,470$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked No | 3c | 4,458$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 3c | 4,378$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 78c | 4,330$3,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 4c | 4,287$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.13 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked No | 29c | 4,083$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 13c | 4,032$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.84 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…0372backed No | 4c | 4,026$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 79c | 3,689$2,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 7c | 3,520$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 17c | 3,003$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.47 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe75…c2b1backed No | 8c | 3,002$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 7c | 2,961$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 7c | 2,899$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +218.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 3c | 2,820$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 31c | 2,660$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 78c | 2,574$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 9c | 2,137$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.63 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed No | 3c | 2,100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…cd27backed No | 3c | 2,100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 1,992$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 6c | 1,567$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 17c | 1,513$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 1,493$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.09 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed No | 3c | 1,443$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed No | 9c | 1,436$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 2c | 1,402$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 17c | 1,299$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 79c | 1,280$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.35 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f09cbacked No | 4c | 1,266$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 1,216$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed Yes | 65c | 1,202$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 3c | 1,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,127$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 1,113$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 22c | 1,084$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 4c | 1,075$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 5c | 1,057$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…3435backed No | 9c | 1,055$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…c661backed No | 5c | 1,034$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 3c | 999.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked No | 2c | 947.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 4c | 942.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 2c | 900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 23c | 897.32$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 2c | 894.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 35c | 827.49$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749d…1fb3backed No | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc706…fcc0backed No | 3c | 784.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 10c | 749.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 7c | 724.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 9c | 723.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 28c | 714.75$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…6d52backed No | 4c | 701.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 19c | 697.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0677…2a28backed No | 7c | 687.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked No | 25c | 684.7$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 35c | 677$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked No | 5c | 663.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 5c | 651.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 3c | 639.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked No | 3c | 621.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed No | 5c | 602.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b4c0backed No | 6c | 586.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 20c | 572.79$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 65c | 571.45$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed No | 7c | 559.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 3c | 551.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…c1a7backed No | 39c | 550$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed No | 19c | 539.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 531.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +135%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 15c | 500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 491.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 7c | 471.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 5c | 469$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 7c | 422.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 5c | 411.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 5c | 388.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 8c | 385$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 7c | 373.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?this page
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?No won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?No won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?Yes won
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.