World Politics · resolved market
Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaf7f438c9d3a8406fd19074ccbff737406380f82727f56329ace59eabb6ac90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 17c | 3,785$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.27 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,468$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.78 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Yes | 3c | 1,968$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…a9b5backed Yes | 17c | 1,892$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…46f2backed Yes | 18c | 1,593$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…2943backed Yes | 17c | 1,231$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f01…cc23backed Yes | 3c | 1,153$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 10c | 1,103$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…dedfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 11c | 999.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 15c | 999.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 2c | 933$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x609c…3514backed Yes | 8c | 901.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe645…345abacked Yes | 18c | 849.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364e…f7fabacked Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 669.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 2c | 640.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…4437backed Yes | 3c | 610.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +397.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -95.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 598.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 15c | 590.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…84cabacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 12c | 561$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…f0c9backed Yes | 9c | 560$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…c498backed Yes | 11c | 527.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e1…3cf3backed Yes | 11c | 505.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f3…f673backed Yes | 8c | 503.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 14c | 474.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f14…7c4cbacked Yes | 18c | 413.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…3e13backed Yes | 24c | 413.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 380.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 9c | 352.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 11c | 330.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…cb0ebacked Yes | 31c | 261.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa930…2800backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 12c | 231.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 19c | 230$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf081…abb6backed Yes | 9c | 228.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ac…cb52backed Yes | 9c | 228.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…b895backed Yes | 12c | 225.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes | 18c | 215.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…01fbbacked Yes | 7c | 207.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…dc87backed Yes | 14c | 205.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…3022backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 7c | 199.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe07…31d3backed Yes | 15c | 180$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff3…bbf7backed Yes | 14c | 156.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd9…438cbacked Yes | 14c | 142.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…119abacked Yes | 9c | 139.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 14c | 137.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 13c | 135.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 12c | 134$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…e997backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…ada5backed Yes | 16c | 112.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 14c | 107.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…01fdbacked Yes | 19c | 103.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff7…3eb8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84e6…90b0backed Yes | 16c | 94.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 77c | 39.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?this page
- Will 50PLUS be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will BBB be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will CU be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will Denk be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will PvdD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SGP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.