World Politics · resolved market
Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ddfc7514d6ddc638a8d4ac0c368c25d75fd6eba8ca42009d4522d71f0b60fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f52…32fbbacked Yes | 1c | 7,079$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 6c | 5,062$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.32 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,604$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,431$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…e491backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +1,403.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364e…f7fabacked Yes | 6c | 499.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…d112backed Yes | 7c | 438.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…a9b5backed Yes | 9c | 433.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9499…5a76backed Yes | 7c | 429.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1c…e8b5backed Yes | 4c | 398.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +640.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ab…a766backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -82%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…119abacked Yes | 7c | 182.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…895bbacked Yes | 9c | 144.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e3…af5cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?this page
- Will 50PLUS be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will BBB be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will CU be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will Denk be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will PvdD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SGP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.