World Politics · resolved market
Will BBB be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46de9eb9e217dd44e40110ba6559dca1b3bd31f98ddc506ad9a5dc258b810f76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 27c | 2,831$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.01 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…1c08backed Yes | 25c | 1,179$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 10c | 977.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…7d80backed No | 74c | 917.49$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…a883backed Yes | 15c | 864$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 80c | 773.65$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 72c | 687.67$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.08 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 70c | 676$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.85 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f01…cc23backed Yes | 5c | 311.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked Yes | 17c | 287.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +378.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42c…1d8cbacked Yes | 15c | 281.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 17c | 280.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…98bcbacked No | 73c | 270$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 192.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be8…9d93backed Yes | 22c | 133.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 80c | 129.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…ef10backed Yes | 16c | 118.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe5…711abacked No | 75c | 106.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…3f28backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 13c | 99.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 78c | 79.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 25c | 79.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…34fcbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 46.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 25c | 44.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed No | 78c | 37.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ca…8903backed No | 78c | 34.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…0d49backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed No | 78c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…37adbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…a8cebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BBB be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?this page
- Will 50PLUS be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will CU be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will Denk be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will PvdD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SGP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.