TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,113
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,113 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c3,133$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick0cpaid+2,830.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes51c2,535$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.9617037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f7…f874backed Yes52c2,290$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.09616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae8…0a59backed No46c1,624$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.15742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes60c1,564$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.1248224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd256…b945backed No52c1,532$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.033633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d61…0000backed No50c1,422$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.921030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes46c1,065$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.453724.3%9 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes35c926$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed Yes35c732$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes6c664.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.877335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No44c662.73$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.8111741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No32c640.41$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.9319027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes43c615$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4219237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes29c587$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5515026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaef…a883backed No44c512.48$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.98933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x668b…3884backed No65c441$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.354100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08fa…5bacbacked Yes43c435.51$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d59…bb0cbacked Yes53c430.27$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddf7…5122backed No69c419$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+186.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed No65c415$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed No46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2165044%22 W · 28 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+223.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dab…9b5fbacked No46c352.72$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked No65c352$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.21060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+81.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed Yes35c352$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked Yes31c352$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.12933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a0…d7a5backed No58c297.6$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.891225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-62%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7086…f376backed No65c297$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No62c277$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.262055%11 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+107.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe135…c346backed No55c262.3$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed No69c255$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.05837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6c…dc0dbacked No41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+78.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes31c238$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.781241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No51c226$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1111,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab32…98bcbacked No64c223.45$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.291844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed0…6625backed Yes46c219.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…4a6cbacked No46c219.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+79%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa079…92c4backed Yes38c204.43$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8731…1181backed No65c202.92$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.017057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55dd…8702backed No50c198.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.931163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c6…7d80backed No57c194.73$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.331145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No73c192.8$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9911069.1%76 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked Yes35c187$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.451338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe627…e145backed Yes46c184.69$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f76…e72bbacked Yes61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3024…0c79backed Yes38c161$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.18933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…8cf7backed No68c158$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.56560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+67.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No49c157$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.54959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Yes17c155.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.382222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a1…d271backed Yes47c154.04$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0404…8353backed No61c148.35$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.31216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6874…651dbacked No68c146.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed No62c143$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x651a…22e9backed No62c136$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.211060%6 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+246.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed No62c136$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed No68c125$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x13f0…33bcbacked No40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed0f…fc07backed No70c120$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No67c119.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.499345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5218…4b51backed No45c110.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc46…bc0abacked No69c105.22$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked Yes32c105$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c104.75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.831,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x326e…c7b9backed Yes32c103$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.96742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+214.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3306…2dc3backed Yes61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6358…cc23backed Yes46c98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.141323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No62c95.49$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.296030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes33c93.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4399017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed Yes38c93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.341127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes44c92.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.654850%24 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes38c92.66$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.481,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea45…e748backed Yes34c91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+38.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x57dc…bd43backed Yes44c88.47$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed Yes16c84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed No52c83.13$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.731827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed No62c82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x365f…d215backed Yes32c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c79.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6788448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e5…cf32backed Yes53c75.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked Yes31c74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddb…3269backed Yes37c71.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes32c67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.44728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd5…989fbacked Yes55c64.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ee…34f0backed Yes32c63.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed No64c63.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.83540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked No65c61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.351040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2db6…4d79backed Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74da…ec2fbacked Yes56c55.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.02812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-80.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb42…47abbacked Yes20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7362…3da0backed No46c54.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5056…f991backed No68c53$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e7…5736backed No77c51.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ec…4601backed Yes50c51.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2057636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb211…29acbacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x062e…b98bbacked No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.