World Politics · resolved market
Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc89a8835e1638383338f6f5925591fa1dcb0f7c470c232f53a7c36fcdab96c40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 38c | 15,580$5,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,849.22 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 68c | 14,137$9,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,481.34 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked Yes | 59c | 9,005$5,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,649.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 46c | 7,636$3,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,483.96 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 4c | 4,587$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 46c | 3,898$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.89 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +640.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 48c | 3,255$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.75 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c2…847dbacked No | 7c | 3,002$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…35f8backed No | 10c | 2,236$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 5c | 2,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb37…2bf1backed No | 4c | 1,700$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +441.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 5c | 1,175$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…e7d5backed Yes | 54c | 1,034$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +212.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 54c | 999.99$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 10c | 971.27$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed No | 4c | 938.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…01bebacked No | 10c | 925$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af7…a58abacked No | 11c | 903.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…98bcbacked Yes | 52c | 858$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…61e6backed No | 1c | 833.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 4c | 496.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…2d15backed No | 13c | 470.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…7f87backed No | 10c | 470.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…9b7dbacked Yes | 51c | 420$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 39c | 411$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.29 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x857e…e682backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6226…76f9backed No | 6c | 311.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 50c | 286.98$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.17 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…1c3abacked No | 4c | 279$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 10c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…1ab0backed No | 6c | 201.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…445cbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 8c | 197.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 52c | 181.81$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 51c | 176$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…b1d5backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 7c | 158.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…433dbacked No | 10c | 154.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes | 55c | 151.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 51c | 137.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 66c | 126.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…3f28backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d61…0000backed Yes | 77c | 93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 45c | 85.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked Yes | 49c | 81.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 50c | 73.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8be8…9d93backed Yes | 58c | 52.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe42…7522backed No | 39c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…13b6backed Yes | 56c | 33.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 51c | 32.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…5c70backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f22…be14backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d4…d42dbacked Yes | 75c | 26.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?this page
- Will 50PLUS be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will BBB be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will CU be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will Denk be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will PvdD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SGP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.