World Politics · resolved market
Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe9963374c6ef0506321b115287a17e113466b19d626b79504736d693d8a9bf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 15c | 6,623$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.56 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca6…a262backed No | 5c | 3,859$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked No | 1c | 3,780$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +378.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed No | 4c | 2,050$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 1,964$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…c4abbacked No | 2c | 1,079$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 73c | 1,076$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 16c | 1,042$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +542.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked No | 26c | 545.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…3f74backed No | 2c | 500.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed No | 3c | 452.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 452.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.77 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…3668backed No | 4c | 396$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…4437backed No | 3c | 388.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +397.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b5…69c7backed No | 6c | 347.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…9b7dbacked No | 22c | 336$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 6c | 329.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed No | 4c | 297.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 25c | 236.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 76c | 172.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 35c | 139$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…b1c6backed No | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 80c | 110.38$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…50bcbacked No | 10c | 109.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 11c | 102.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 57c | 76.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 20c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…89babacked No | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2c…8890backed Yes | 78c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +752.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?this page
- Will 50PLUS be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will BBB be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will CU be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Denk be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will PvdD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SGP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.