World Politics · resolved market
Will CU be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86952fac5f5a55265ccbf5972c1016308291f3819b1405919080ff79be9928ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4a4…5816backed No | 75c | 1,300$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 29c | 987$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.79 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 22c | 844.67$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.45 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 80c | 688.55$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 62c | 564.77$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.22 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 43c | 541$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.62 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 34c | 499.97$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 69c | 400$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 10c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be8…9d93backed No | 67c | 360.68$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.59 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 6c | 296$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 289.11$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…98bcbacked No | 65c | 281.79$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 19c | 266.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 13c | 263$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 15c | 254.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…2802backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 66c | 244$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 5c | 221$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 217.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 8c | 216$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked No | 78c | 207$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 6c | 205$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 67c | 191$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 6c | 189$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 6c | 188$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes | 11c | 182$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 157.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 11c | 153$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 11c | 151$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 7c | 147$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 8c | 145$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +378.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 18c | 125$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3002…7d71backed Yes | 17c | 115.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 11c | 109$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 11c | 103$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 11c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdc…8cdcbacked No | 67c | 79.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 33c | 77.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 67c | 70.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +640.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…d392backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +203.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 77c | 60.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed No | 66c | 52.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 32c | 44.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2153…23afbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac31…71febacked No | 67c | 26.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…ce19backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CU be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?this page
- Will 50PLUS be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will BBB be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will Denk be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will PvdD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SGP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will SP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
- Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?Yes won
- Will Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.