AI · resolved market

Will Luigi Mangione be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2fb1b5f67a707d2659f63fad534285a66feac3e58f32fad8663a326eb809f03

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $614,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $278,451

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $614,872 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7744…999ebacked Yes	0c	118,412$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.41	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes	1c	40,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes	4c	10,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	23cpaid	-82.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes	3c	7,267$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.68	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	7,100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	149	1.3%2 W · 147 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-83.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	6,504$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.15	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	1c	5,856$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	104	26.9%28 W · 76 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6622…d7a9backed Yes	5c	5,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	2c	4,672$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.52	183	11.5%21 W · 162 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	4,046$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.77	65	24.6%16 W · 49 L	+8.4wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+65.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf73…c54fbacked Yes	4c	4,022$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes	4c	3,667$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.09	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes	3c	3,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09a2…eb8abacked Yes	0c	2,671$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes	1c	2,632$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-52%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	1c	2,333$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	107	23.4%25 W · 82 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes	4c	2,000$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	2c	2,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	118	50%59 W · 59 L	+12.9wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	5c	2,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	126	36.5%46 W · 80 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+20%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes	2c	1,900$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.1	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	4c	1,854$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.59	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	1c	1,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	126	36.5%46 W · 80 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes	1c	1,394$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+6.3wins	+0.23per pick	40cpaid	+111.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	1,103$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c71…5176backed Yes	2c	1,057$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	5c	1,000$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.43	54	20.4%11 W · 43 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0678…9fd0backed Yes	4c	1,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.39	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.15per pick	33cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfde6…0329backed Yes	2c	999.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes	6c	999.98$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+2.1wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes	6c	999.94$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	2c	880.25$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.51	183	23%42 W · 141 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…5218backed Yes	4c	865.95$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.06	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ac…cb52backed Yes	2c	828.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5db…d774backed Yes	3c	692.76$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.73	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes	3c	577.3$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes	3c	519.57$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3c…b4ecbacked Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes	4c	499.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x187a…87ccbacked Yes	3c	499.94$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes	4c	499.92$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b4…2f34backed Yes	2c	492.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe25a…a0f4backed Yes	5c	470$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes	3c	461.84$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.93	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes	4c	461.84$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.22	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f49…af16backed Yes	3c	461.84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.95	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8650…b3f7backed Yes	3c	404.11$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes	4c	404.11$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…547abacked Yes	3c	404.11$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes	3c	346.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes	3c	346.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes	6c	334.78$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	55	21.8%12 W · 43 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf302…e00abacked Yes	6c	311.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	4c	307.25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	45	4.4%2 W · 43 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b1…d9edbacked Yes	4c	288.65$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Yes	7c	286.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-3.1wins	-0.14per pick	19cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x00c6…7d8cbacked Yes	5c	232.81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	5c	217$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	117	20.5%24 W · 93 L	-5.7wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x621c…55e2backed Yes	5c	216.65$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf75…7623backed Yes	5c	203.85$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.09	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Luigi Mangione be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event