AI · resolved market

Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x228ac9d2dac8f23c6b582266a9e5fc7e366af339dd377936371494d6d184f814

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $416,409
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $237,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,409 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7744…999ebacked Yes	0c	93,619$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.62	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked Yes	1c	37,765$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.74	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e4…c23fbacked Yes	1c	10,200$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.2	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	2c	9,960$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.34	72	22.2%16 W · 56 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	2c	9,153$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.6	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x510c…0025backed Yes	1c	6,726$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ad1…38b9backed Yes	1c	6,072$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	1c	5,314$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.91	45	4.4%2 W · 43 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	5,100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.1	149	1.3%2 W · 147 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-83.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	1c	5,000$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	118	50%59 W · 59 L	+12.9wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes	1c	3,859$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.81	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes	1c	3,795$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.86	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-91.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,398$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.8	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba3e…c102backed Yes	1c	3,276$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.52	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdafa…5d32backed Yes	1c	3,200$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	1c	3,103$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.79	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes	1c	3,039$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.39	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	18cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes	1c	2,894$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.68	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+6.3wins	+0.23per pick	40cpaid	+111.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	1c	2,350$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.24	63	4.8%3 W · 60 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-90.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8476…5418backed Yes	3c	1,869$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.11	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	126	36.5%46 W · 80 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…78c9backed Yes	3c	1,138$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b9…197dbacked Yes	1c	1,029$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	+64.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cce…8713backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	999.26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	54	20.4%11 W · 43 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…7e75backed Yes	2c	985.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cad…d35cbacked Yes	1c	800$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes	2c	800$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	90	41.1%37 W · 53 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	2c	705.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	183	23%42 W · 141 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…53bebacked Yes	3c	568$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.34	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa609…8141backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd03…af6bbacked Yes	3c	453$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event