AI · resolved market

Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6579dbe57c1a39bb0c95f5c174c24a5d980acd86ebf1fd73bc18c11951f377b

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $749,564
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $426,484

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $749,564 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7744…999ebacked Yes	0c	103,762$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.76	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Yes	0c	77,804$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.8	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes	7c	23,550$1,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,655.54	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…4d48backed Yes	3c	22,930$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.69	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.18per pick	27cpaid	-87.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes	4c	18,524$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740.75	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes	10c	15,296$1,503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,502.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes	3c	15,154$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.61	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	+4.5wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	15,090$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes	7c	12,603$844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$843.67	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	10,872$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.95	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes	7c	9,185$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.55	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	23cpaid	-82.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4392…68c3backed Yes	7c	8,166$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.67	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.23per pick	34cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Yes	7c	7,000$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes	5c	4,797$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.19	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-91.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	2c	4,423$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.44	183	11.5%21 W · 162 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	6c	3,916$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.53	63	4.8%3 W · 60 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-90.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	5c	2,636$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.45	118	50%59 W · 59 L	+12.9wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	4c	2,575$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.71	81	22.2%18 W · 63 L	-5.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes	5c	2,258$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.93	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Yes	8c	1,806$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	5c	1,612$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.4	183	23%42 W · 141 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes	6c	1,387$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.34	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff6…0eb0backed Yes	7c	1,284$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.05	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43f7…35e5backed Yes	3c	1,276$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.71	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb8…dafdbacked Yes	6c	1,155$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes	5c	1,111$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	1,064$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.79	574	26.8%154 W · 420 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	7c	1,006$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.88	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d7…60e5backed Yes	4c	1,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-73.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes	6c	1,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	7c	999.52$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.97	54	20.4%11 W · 43 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac1…045dbacked Yes	4c	900$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf75…7018backed Yes	7c	870.94$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes	6c	825.01$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.98	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+59%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes	4c	810$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.59	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	5c	669.28$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.93	257	31.5%81 W · 176 L	-14.6wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes	4c	640$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.82	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	+4.4wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes	5c	600$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.21per pick	36cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66ae…b420backed Yes	5c	520$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3d…9056backed Yes	5c	469.68$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda2e…13dabacked Yes	7c	370$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa293…c258backed Yes	7c	319.61$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd18d…fc51backed Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes	7c	249.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes	7c	245.67$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.61	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28b3…7af3backed Yes	9c	239.66$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.09	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.21per pick	31cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes	5c	218.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	13cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e2…ac05backed Yes	7c	210.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15ba…26ffbacked Yes	6c	207.6$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ac…344abacked Yes	6c	207.6$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	5c	207.55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d2…9febbacked Yes	5c	200.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	6c	191.34$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56b4…3730backed Yes	7c	170$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad6f…0244backed Yes	6c	169$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6b…adcebacked Yes	7c	150$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	7c	147$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes	8c	126.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event