Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ffe1f64528d6ad602ce1b741b27b5cdfd93e8b7aa929dfff10e45e043019bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,905$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 18c | 1,807$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.83 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf221…2575backed Yes | 7c | 1,456$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 15c | 1,256$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,222$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.82 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 73c | 982.36$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.24 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 18c | 811$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 77c | 557$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 75c | 529.52$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.38 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 22c | 475.17$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 410.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 20c | 392.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…21ccbacked Yes | 18c | 360.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 318.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc32a…7c05backed Yes | 16c | 307$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 27c | 294.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 9c | 287.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Yes | 15c | 272$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 25c | 221.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…8a79backed Yes | 29c | 220$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 16c | 189.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e11…43c2backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 76c | 176.17$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3811backed Yes | 20c | 146$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 16c | 143$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…3bc8backed Yes | 14c | 125.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 122$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…6632backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 24c | 119.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 17c | 109$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c4…eee1backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…88b8backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…4d95backed No | 77c | 98.12$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 82.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e564backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed No | 80c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 80c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +243.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…97d1backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes | 16c | 64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 76c | 49.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed No | 71c | 40.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 79c | 40.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…1cb5backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…bb62backed No | 77c | 27.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 63cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79de…e4bebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked No | 74c | 23.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…d99cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 72c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.