World Politics · resolved market
Will Chile Grande y Unido hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f77cf81c470b4519b58efa36236b40a6f01ea4fe2cc1cb1568ae94030fedf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 3,472$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.27 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 18c | 3,052$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.51 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.95 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…869abacked Yes | 14c | 2,115$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 18c | 589$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 19c | 400.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed Yes | 17c | 279.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…2c80backed Yes | 19c | 215.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 153.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f23…179abacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…3bc8backed Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd8…c525backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 81.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fe…f3bcbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Yes | 21c | 79.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 77.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…1f97backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…a526backed No | 79c | 30.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…a2a2backed No | 80c | 27.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…df30backed No | 80c | 21.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…3407backed No | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…5752backed No | 79c | 17.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chile Grande y Unido hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies?this page
- Will Cambio por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies?No won
- Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.