AI · resolved market
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f6afed30cc388ae3426385a85b2c614b8685dee2ab2dae672cfd0f0220ecac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e91…6007backed No | 3c | 2,912$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,233$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 1,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 9c | 1,790$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.47 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 1,702$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 1,653$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 5c | 1,496$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 1,408$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 5c | 1,408$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 6c | 1,397$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…94c0backed No | 19c | 1,343$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc0…dc99backed Yes | 79c | 1,325$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 1,234$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ed…5abebacked No | 4c | 1,223$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17dc…2c33backed No | 4c | 1,130$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 1,091$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…7a08backed No | 2c | 1,086$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 3c | 938.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 923.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 76c | 771.51$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 80c | 746.82$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.82 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 14c | 705.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 2c | 590.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 19c | 581.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 3c | 565.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0663…776fbacked No | 2c | 508.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 11c | 453.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…8d7bbacked Yes | 76c | 395.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…bffcbacked No | 16c | 349.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 79c | 340.39$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 331.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 20c | 287.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 50c | 280.12$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.16 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…063ebacked No | 8c | 251.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ce…39dfbacked Yes | 38c | 236.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 162.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 157.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed No | 13c | 152.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ef…06c8backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…a2d5backed Yes | 72c | 139.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 79c | 139.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…6df3backed Yes | 40c | 138.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 9c | 138$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 11c | 135.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 77c | 131.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 16c | 125.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…fab0backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 119.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…788ebacked No | 13c | 112$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ce…e5e3backed No | 19c | 105.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…3bc8backed No | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 101.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f73…04c2backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb62b…bcf1backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Yes | 79c | 95.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 94.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 67c | 91.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 83.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 17c | 76.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 14c | 73.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…c1a1backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 19c | 56.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…b9aebacked No | 20c | 50.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…9963backed Yes | 78c | 49.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 47c | 40.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…98e2backed Yes | 77c | 38.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…b429backed Yes | 39c | 38.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…3ae6backed Yes | 78c | 35.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…998abacked Yes | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f57…c234backed No | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3966…be5fbacked Yes | 77c | 29.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…1925backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…c7aabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0233…31b5backed Yes | 78c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c0…ff26backed Yes | 79c | 14.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.