AI · resolved market
Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf0900af05221e2ec99d7365ddc5df4387ddc2885f34fef8e46af1ae25c91bf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 6c | 22,147$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.87 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,888$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 9,709$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.58 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,378$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.44 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,826$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.43 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,800$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.11 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 3,200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 7c | 2,889$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 2,125$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,051$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,798$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,724$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,686$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,588$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,530$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,499$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,486$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,428$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 5c | 1,392$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 1,301$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 4c | 1,218$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 1,157$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 6c | 1,095$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 1,066$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,062$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5598…bda9backed Yes | 15c | 983.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 933.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 835.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 808.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 750.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 7c | 652.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 3c | 584.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0183…5426backed Yes | 6c | 552.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 8c | 524.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…f8b2backed Yes | 4c | 478.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 429.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 5c | 380$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…af2abacked Yes | 3c | 374.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 5c | 288.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 12c | 197.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 11c | 193.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes | 12c | 173.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 11c | 96.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.