AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b77627d35974883317d5642b85edac79e169e5e0d207c300aa1d6a487c1f9ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x526f…62babacked Yes | 1c | 8,645$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 7,983$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 5,244$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,588$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…fec1backed Yes | 0c | 3,238$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…efc0backed Yes | 1c | 2,916$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bb…b1aebacked Yes | 4c | 2,572$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 1c | 2,406$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ab…8102backed Yes | 1c | 1,988$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,878$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,620$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,542$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…72c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,466$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,252$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…c012backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…ab6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,234$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 1,229$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee23…813dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,179$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 2c | 1,097$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,058$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…89f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,042$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 975.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ce…e5e3backed Yes | 2c | 942.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 859.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 337.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…79c8backed Yes | 6c | 319.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 287.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 187.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…6df3backed Yes | 15c | 139.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d7…9f96backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb075…ac16backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.