AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70ccef7ad6c9bf248b377e91a16e6c3ad84dfa26808b1875367ed455b3b9a771
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 4,969$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.7 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…ee96backed Yes | 2c | 4,801$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…efc0backed Yes | 3c | 3,168$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,861$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,759$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.17 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 2c | 2,444$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…fec1backed Yes | 1c | 2,393$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b7…08afbacked Yes | 2c | 2,391$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 4c | 2,227$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7b…b50dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,880$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 10c | 1,820$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.99 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0663…776fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,680$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 1,663$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…5c8ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,528$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,499$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,427$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…bbe8backed Yes | 2c | 1,367$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,288$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…882cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,286$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 1,159$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,081$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abc…2f82backed Yes | 2c | 1,034$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,008$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…fdcfbacked Yes | 3c | 973.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 8c | 949.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…aecfbacked Yes | 3c | 936.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 11c | 917.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 10c | 900$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…0974backed Yes | 1c | 866.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 809.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…3f6abacked Yes | 2c | 796.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked Yes | 13c | 775.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 9c | 771.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes | 10c | 759.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 713.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ab…8102backed Yes | 3c | 700.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked Yes | 7c | 542.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 6c | 522.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace8…5524backed Yes | 5c | 447.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 5c | 437.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 3c | 435.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…14fdbacked Yes | 7c | 378.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 336.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…b251backed Yes | 9c | 253.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c7…7b69backed Yes | 9c | 234.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…79c8backed Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c1…547dbacked Yes | 10c | 215.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…7b4abacked Yes | 10c | 205.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427b…ec90backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…f899backed Yes | 10c | 185.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d48…d659backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed Yes | 7c | 169.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 9c | 166.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 9c | 160.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…96cfbacked Yes | 11c | 158.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…6df3backed Yes | 27c | 139.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 130.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 99.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 11c | 91.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.