TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,825,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,387,132

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,825,310 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,681 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4a5…430fbacked Yes1c484,611$2,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,728.5230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes7c392,735$26,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,200.9926423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2e2…2093backed Yes1c299,478$3,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,612.842213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+109.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes5c269,673$13,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,251.110634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes11c194,752$21,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,425.155827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes13c163,141$21,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,481.224337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes13c138,728$17,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,4434643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c128,299$4,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,281.9942818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes6c117,007$7,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,256.41720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes8c109,179$8,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,330.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes8c107,900$8,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,613.823823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3511…e3bdbacked Yes10c105,656$10,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,965.6650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c103,556$4,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,898.9521521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes8c101,976$7,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,811.182814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes3c99,858$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.514415.9%7 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes0c98,141$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.66450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Yes12c91,961$11,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,274.941127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409c…d891backed Yes11c86,767$9,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,854.7933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes7c83,238$6,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,036.4410444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c83,232$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.038817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes4c81,639$3,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,638.93965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0cf…5507backed Yes4c77,117$3,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,405.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb14f…233bbacked Yes14c75,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes9c63,851$5,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,448.965431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes10c60,000$5,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7855922%13 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b63…8f36backed Yes3c57,753$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+103.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes12c56,753$7,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,049.417423%17 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3afa…d5b7backed Yes9c55,558$4,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,849.54119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb2…db4ebacked Yes8c54,300$4,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,246.09714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-72%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes3c51,137$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.7468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf23c…ad58backed Yes12c51,128$6,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,082.211020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes2c50,269$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.75726.9%5 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a7f…6a3abacked Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a91…1075backed Yes6c49,855$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,99910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ac0…7a98backed Yes14c49,817$7,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,049.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4753…fd5dbacked Yes4c47,284$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,815.560%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…4471backed Yes18c45,713$8,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,368.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes7c45,689$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,263.0820823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa3…ea8dbacked Yes3c44,044$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.951330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+164.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4990…1a1abacked Yes11c42,204$4,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,587.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c7…e125backed Yes2c41,397$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012920.7%6 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1913…b494backed Yes12c40,816$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe217…846dbacked Yes5c39,042$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…395bbacked Yes9c38,502$3,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,277.16911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff27…53cbbacked Yes7c37,165$2,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,711.23156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e93…db0cbacked Yes14c35,785$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes11c35,400$4,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0641936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+80.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x571a…3315backed Yes3c35,264$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.59812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-82.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes9c35,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+55.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcbb4…f7a4backed Yes13c34,675$4,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,387.5660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…89bbbacked Yes4c34,130$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.936633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d50…8b84backed Yes12c33,907$3,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,911.41130%0 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2937…694ebacked Yes11c31,491$3,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,512.35850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+124.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x768c…015dbacked Yes7c30,424$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+123.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9608…040bbacked Yes9c28,787$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.95119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bab…53e6backed Yes17c28,704$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x728e…713bbacked Yes2c28,056$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.05520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbce…a28bbacked Yes10c27,759$2,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,694.792711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe86c…bb51backed Yes8c27,268$2,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.092646.2%12 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+69.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c27,082$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.847135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed Yes4c26,957$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.384652.2%24 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0404…8353backed Yes4c26,906$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.672516%4 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae4…bdfebacked Yes10c26,651$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.45229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-63.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d80…493fbacked Yes10c24,047$2,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,481.221020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-60.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaefd…24d1backed Yes0c23,977$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x312a…80aebacked Yes3c22,470$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c21,780$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.3989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x654a…ce43backed Yes12c20,833$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f8…8a6fbacked Yes16c20,515$3,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,341.61757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcf…324ebacked Yes9c20,327$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.722725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x870c…5806backed Yes3c20,244$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.86616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-78.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes6c20,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1502045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa577…91e3backed Yes18c19,753$3,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,527850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes5c19,666$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.487513.3%10 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe29e…f2c6backed Yes4c19,621$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.581030%3 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick10cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b25…00a3backed Yes3c19,351$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c18,610$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.582476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c18,450$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.224625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x273d…d0edbacked Yes6c18,436$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf580…7fadbacked Yes3c18,139$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.312532%8 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes6c18,121$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.03827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da4…bb27backed Yes1c17,833$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8980%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e2…9a41backed Yes15c17,769$2,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,665.331030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes4c17,395$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.21430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc7…1f75backed Yes12c17,152$2,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.53650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67fb…4ff6backed Yes7c16,965$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.151118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c2…8febbacked Yes12c16,550$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf275…01cbbacked Yes4c16,305$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.534216.7%7 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd562…3e76backed Yes20c15,425$3,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,025.06812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea7…7e1cbacked Yes10c15,154$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7397…1968backed Yes6c15,067$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9544734%16 W · 31 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes13c15,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes4c15,000$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5451163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a67…9129backed Yes1c14,960$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x323d…6861backed Yes12c14,468$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed Yes9c14,336$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.410428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes11c14,306$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.686262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes9c14,293$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.1548923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed Yes15c14,291$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.68728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff0b…bbd4backed Yes7c14,286$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.