Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77b9b065f487d1e18d005465d221ec6c84ed3babfaf6ecf62f20baeaa9fc3038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,825,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,387,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,825,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,681 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4a5…430fbacked Yes | 1c | 484,611$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,728.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 7c | 392,735$26,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,200.99 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 1c | 299,478$3,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,612.84 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 5c | 269,673$13,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,251.1 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 11c | 194,752$21,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,425.15 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 13c | 163,141$21,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,481.22 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes | 13c | 138,728$17,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,443 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 128,299$4,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,281.99 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 6c | 117,007$7,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,256.41 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 8c | 109,179$8,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,330.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 8c | 107,900$8,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,613.82 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…e3bdbacked Yes | 10c | 105,656$10,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,965.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 5c | 103,556$4,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,898.95 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 8c | 101,976$7,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,811.18 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 3c | 99,858$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.51 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 0c | 98,141$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 12c | 91,961$11,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,274.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…d891backed Yes | 11c | 86,767$9,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,854.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 7c | 83,238$6,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,036.44 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 83,232$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.03 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 4c | 81,639$3,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,638.93 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…5507backed Yes | 4c | 77,117$3,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,405.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb14f…233bbacked Yes | 14c | 75,000$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 9c | 63,851$5,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,448.96 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 10c | 60,000$5,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,785 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b63…8f36backed Yes | 3c | 57,753$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 12c | 56,753$7,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,049.41 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3afa…d5b7backed Yes | 9c | 55,558$4,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,849.54 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb2…db4ebacked Yes | 8c | 54,300$4,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,246.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -72%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 3c | 51,137$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.7 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…ad58backed Yes | 12c | 51,128$6,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,082.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 50,269$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.75 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7f…6a3abacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a91…1075backed Yes | 6c | 49,855$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…7a98backed Yes | 14c | 49,817$7,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,049.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…fd5dbacked Yes | 4c | 47,284$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…4471backed Yes | 18c | 45,713$8,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,368.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 7c | 45,689$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,263.08 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…ea8dbacked Yes | 3c | 44,044$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4990…1a1abacked Yes | 11c | 42,204$4,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,587.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…e125backed Yes | 2c | 41,397$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1913…b494backed Yes | 12c | 40,816$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…846dbacked Yes | 5c | 39,042$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…395bbacked Yes | 9c | 38,502$3,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,277.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…53cbbacked Yes | 7c | 37,165$2,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,711.23 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…db0cbacked Yes | 14c | 35,785$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 11c | 35,400$4,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,064 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…3315backed Yes | 3c | 35,264$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes | 9c | 35,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…f7a4backed Yes | 13c | 34,675$4,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,387.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…89bbbacked Yes | 4c | 34,130$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.93 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d50…8b84backed Yes | 12c | 33,907$3,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,911.41 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2937…694ebacked Yes | 11c | 31,491$3,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,512.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768c…015dbacked Yes | 7c | 30,424$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…040bbacked Yes | 9c | 28,787$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Yes | 17c | 28,704$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x728e…713bbacked Yes | 2c | 28,056$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…a28bbacked Yes | 10c | 27,759$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,694.79 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 8c | 27,268$2,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.09 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 27,082$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.84 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97af…9bc6backed Yes | 4c | 26,957$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.38 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…8353backed Yes | 4c | 26,906$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.67 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…bdfebacked Yes | 10c | 26,651$2,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.45 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d80…493fbacked Yes | 10c | 24,047$2,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,481.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefd…24d1backed Yes | 0c | 23,977$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…80aebacked Yes | 3c | 22,470$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 21,780$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,829.39 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x654a…ce43backed Yes | 12c | 20,833$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…8a6fbacked Yes | 16c | 20,515$3,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,341.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…324ebacked Yes | 9c | 20,327$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.72 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed Yes | 3c | 20,244$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 6c | 20,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…91e3backed Yes | 18c | 19,753$3,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,527 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 5c | 19,666$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.48 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…f2c6backed Yes | 4c | 19,621$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b25…00a3backed Yes | 3c | 19,351$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 18,610$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.58 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 18,450$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.22 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…d0edbacked Yes | 6c | 18,436$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…7fadbacked Yes | 3c | 18,139$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 6c | 18,121$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.03 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da4…bb27backed Yes | 1c | 17,833$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e2…9a41backed Yes | 15c | 17,769$2,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,665.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 17,395$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.2 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc7…1f75backed Yes | 12c | 17,152$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67fb…4ff6backed Yes | 7c | 16,965$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…8febbacked Yes | 12c | 16,550$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…01cbbacked Yes | 4c | 16,305$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.53 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…3e76backed Yes | 20c | 15,425$3,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,025.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…7e1cbacked Yes | 10c | 15,154$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…1968backed Yes | 6c | 15,067$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 13c | 15,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 4c | 15,000$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…9129backed Yes | 1c | 14,960$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323d…6861backed Yes | 12c | 14,468$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 9c | 14,336$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.4 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 11c | 14,306$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.68 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 9c | 14,293$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.15 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed Yes | 15c | 14,291$2,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,143.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff0b…bbd4backed Yes | 7c | 14,286$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.