Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fd08bd2f65bdd2b066ba4c808c149cd69daaf86cafbc6477dba139e01927284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 31c | 4,505$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.15 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 73c | 1,844$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.16 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 72c | 1,519$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.07 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 60c | 969.3$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.69 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 78c | 868.22$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed No | 78c | 305$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 70c | 302.98$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…2cf2backed No | 69c | 203.39$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 14c | 133.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…e17ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…ee58backed No | 59c | 91.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…3bc8backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked No | 75c | 44.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa167…729ebacked Yes | 29c | 39.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 35.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a4…b510backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of December?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $270 end of December?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of December?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of December?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of December?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of December?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of December?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of December?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 end of December?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $380 end of December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.