Ukraine · resolved market
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0edd688013e4d08dd5367b9171bf85c6df73f2a4f561ed3c8ce004271c8278b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,035 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 14c | 10,044$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 17c | 10,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.89 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 9,957$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.6 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 13c | 8,199$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…b48dbacked Yes | 12c | 7,334$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 12c | 7,279$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 8c | 6,675$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.8 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 17c | 5,802$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa292…9742backed Yes | 8c | 4,300$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…405cbacked Yes | 9c | 4,156$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 15c | 3,839$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.05 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 9c | 3,437$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.22 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d64…738ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,216$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afb…7f1cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3861…49fcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,967$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd178…68fbbacked Yes | 12c | 2,888$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbae…fbacbacked Yes | 8c | 2,625$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588f…1fdcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,557$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 14c | 2,419$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 9c | 2,239$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed Yes | 16c | 2,112$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 14c | 2,095$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +403.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…2cc5backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9b…f85dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,900$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…e16dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,900$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796e…c99ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,811$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…c047backed Yes | 15c | 1,671$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 1,600$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…e305backed Yes | 20c | 1,349$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…b862backed Yes | 15c | 1,322$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,278$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 1,276$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…4610backed Yes | 13c | 1,263$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa883…31fbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 9c | 1,117$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…4f09backed Yes | 13c | 1,090$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 1,036$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…5e3fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…af12backed Yes | 10c | 967.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 952.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…b8c1backed Yes | 11c | 926.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 10c | 870.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…5246backed Yes | 11c | 833.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 14c | 826.93$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed Yes | 16c | 825$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 807.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…f0a6backed Yes | 15c | 754.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Yes | 13c | 741.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedca…0a70backed Yes | 10c | 700.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…47e5backed Yes | 6c | 700$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 699.42$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…8b6dbacked Yes | 9c | 677.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa846…3ab8backed Yes | 8c | 632.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Yes | 15c | 621.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…f71bbacked Yes | 8c | 621.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7b…db2dbacked Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…2784backed Yes | 10c | 599.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…252abacked Yes | 10c | 545.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…34f4backed Yes | 9c | 530$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…804dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…ed7bbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 9c | 482.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 15c | 479.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 457.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…45bcbacked Yes | 11c | 436.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7267…b5eebacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…8f08backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…7422backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5b…3729backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f9…9dbebacked Yes | 11c | 375.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 14c | 356$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 5c | 340$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 335.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f05…43e7backed Yes | 9c | 330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…d89abacked Yes | 9c | 321.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 320.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x352c…05d8backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes | 11c | 291.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…953ebacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…b7bdbacked Yes | 18c | 275$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 78c | 272.98$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 268.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 16c | 267.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Yes | 17c | 266.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 266.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…16a2backed Yes | 9c | 260.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…6984backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 12c | 249$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…9382backed Yes | 7c | 242.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked Yes | 13c | 224.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?this page
- Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?No won
- Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.