Ukraine · resolved market
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4afb076c5d9dfe1c33bf300cfd9fb93a5a8d9bfce8fe2beaeccbde5f8c269fc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $455,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $455,886 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 6c | 60,338$3,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,820.23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 52,000$2,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,591.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…eebabacked Yes | 7c | 24,843$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…f818backed Yes | 6c | 18,495$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5823…673fbacked Yes | 6c | 14,301$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…74babacked Yes | 6c | 11,443$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3559…4d76backed Yes | 6c | 9,613$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 3c | 8,123$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 5c | 6,761$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 6c | 6,348$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +403.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…54d1backed Yes | 6c | 6,164$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 4c | 5,817$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…9d41backed Yes | 9c | 5,784$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…9c3dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,758$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…5738backed Yes | 6c | 5,754$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 6c | 5,614$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.57 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 9c | 5,029$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 4,842$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.89 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 5c | 4,806$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.34 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 4,804$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.23 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb145…4a26backed Yes | 3c | 4,455$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 5c | 4,389$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.45 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37b…15e7backed Yes | 5c | 4,325$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…405cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,291$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…44bdbacked Yes | 5c | 4,042$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.28 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…e1f0backed Yes | 8c | 3,689$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 6c | 3,394$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 3,369$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.11 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 3,357$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.47 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 3,171$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908c…e048backed Yes | 6c | 2,999$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561c…730cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,676$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 2,213$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…239cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,109$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 2,038$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes | 7c | 2,033$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…13acbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796e…8c43backed Yes | 10c | 1,949$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 7c | 1,857$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,745$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…e16dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,733$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…703bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,680$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…0f1cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…8a1fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,616$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…8185backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 6c | 1,494$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1f…4c94backed Yes | 6c | 1,405$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 3c | 1,369$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…23f2backed Yes | 12c | 1,328$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…a2e5backed Yes | 5c | 1,283$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0d…45bfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,245$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb18…57ecbacked Yes | 8c | 1,235$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda5d…a1b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…403cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,170$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc5…e524backed Yes | 4c | 1,168$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…2433backed Yes | 5c | 1,106$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…af12backed Yes | 9c | 1,106$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,095$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedca…0a70backed Yes | 5c | 1,086$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…8b6dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,011$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7907…cbb5backed Yes | 6c | 1,007$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…92b9backed Yes | 5c | 1,005$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…7422backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…03b8backed Yes | 7c | 990.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f2…695cbacked Yes | 6c | 945.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…d706backed Yes | 3c | 941.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…c9a0backed Yes | 6c | 934.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Yes | 8c | 876.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…54eabacked Yes | 6c | 839.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…e63cbacked Yes | 6c | 819.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…2cc5backed Yes | 6c | 800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec53…e515backed Yes | 13c | 795.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 779.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 763.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 733$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…2784backed Yes | 6c | 728.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 725.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…9dc1backed Yes | 7c | 720.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…60cfbacked Yes | 6c | 701.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…3e82backed Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 699.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 6c | 675.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 3c | 666.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes | 6c | 649.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…ddf0backed Yes | 6c | 642.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 3c | 636.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…f71bbacked Yes | 5c | 630.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Yes | 6c | 585.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeab…321ebacked Yes | 6c | 577.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd0…de6abacked Yes | 7c | 567.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…a894backed Yes | 7c | 548.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 3c | 508.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd0…6837backed Yes | 8c | 505.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0d…95abbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 6c | 489.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?this page
- Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?No won
- Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.