Ukraine · resolved market
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42b4e02c1e95ca7b5e8610c3c1fad1dff6c0a46d01de6ae12565df026e3fc5a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,681 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3861…49fcbacked Yes | 11c | 15,796$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes | 12c | 13,629$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 17c | 10,549$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.3 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes | 25c | 4,000$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 19c | 2,871$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.19 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 19c | 2,816$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…8924backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 19c | 1,810$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 78c | 1,800$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fec…5af0backed Yes | 11c | 1,789$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 16c | 1,379$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.74 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 15c | 1,315$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 23c | 1,312$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 24c | 1,282$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…f71bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,063$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 14c | 791.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 12c | 699.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked No | 79c | 549.99$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…b8c1backed Yes | 18c | 543.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…84babacked Yes | 14c | 533.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…a4b2backed Yes | 11c | 509.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked Yes | 21c | 500.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…4610backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…7418backed Yes | 20c | 493.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…7422backed Yes | 15c | 473.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 20c | 467.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c6…b544backed No | 80c | 459.73$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…5840backed Yes | 22c | 452.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa292…9742backed Yes | 17c | 444.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…8b6dbacked Yes | 18c | 431.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…2cd8backed Yes | 19c | 425.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…792ebacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…4f09backed Yes | 16c | 345.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 20c | 333$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…e1fbbacked Yes | 24c | 312.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…9cd4backed No | 78c | 265.68$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a84…bb2ebacked Yes | 15c | 259.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…7a52backed Yes | 20c | 254.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 252.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…47e5backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb015…734bbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…2784backed Yes | 19c | 244.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…1beabacked Yes | 11c | 238.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514a…0cbfbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 12c | 235.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 231.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 75c | 220.45$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 18c | 215.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…a12bbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…7829backed No | 76c | 195.19$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c69…bbadbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…9ee1backed No | 79c | 185.32$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…0bf4backed Yes | 18c | 179.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 175$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…7f90backed Yes | 11c | 174.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…9382backed Yes | 16c | 173.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…0468backed Yes | 27c | 171.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…ba9fbacked Yes | 12c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02b…43dcbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…1556backed Yes | 10c | 153$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…5312backed Yes | 19c | 145.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca7…49dcbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf1…b72dbacked Yes | 24c | 135.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 14c | 134.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…9386backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…6981backed Yes | 18c | 124.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…f2f2backed Yes | 17c | 118.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0a…3b4bbacked Yes | 18c | 109.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…8618backed No | 76c | 105.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 24c | 105.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…93dbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0d…95abbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…3b08backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd0…97b3backed Yes | 15c | 97.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…3d79backed Yes | 17c | 89.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7607…d5cdbacked Yes | 24c | 88.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…1851backed Yes | 23c | 85.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…493fbacked No | 76c | 82.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddc…985abacked Yes | 27c | 80.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…de5bbacked Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…9f81backed Yes | 23c | 75.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455d…89d6backed Yes | 15c | 72.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 18c | 68.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c40…445cbacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…af37backed Yes | 27c | 66.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 65.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed No | 76c | 65.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…03a5backed No | 79c | 63.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…0f26backed Yes | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd2…fc14backed No | 79c | 62.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…a03dbacked Yes | 23c | 61.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…3dddbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eea…da7fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd59…73cdbacked No | 79c | 31.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?this page
- Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?No won
- Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.