Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd31f8939be3306c08d19ccafc5c693707a853b039039204d849ef704b5cbdc25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 14c | 1,307$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.75 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 23c | 1,014$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.84 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f39…93d3backed No | 16c | 804.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 74c | 657.68$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.66 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 66c | 444.03$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.79 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 76c | 381.84$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.8wins | -0.36per pick | 42cpaid | -88%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…5670backed No | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 22c | 208.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…3bc8backed Yes | 77c | 134$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 28c | 111.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 102.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed Yes | 66c | 89.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 84.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 51c | 64.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 52c | 60.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…d61bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 40c | 32.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 29.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…facbbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7016…3ad0backed No | 54c | 25.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed Yes | 59c | 24.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of November?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of November?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of November?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of November?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of November?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of November?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of November?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $540 end of November?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $555 end of November?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $570 end of November?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of November?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $600 end of November?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $615 end of November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.