Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54c8ccee96f88fb90c0d9dfd46af6501fc8f350f93529d0097ec6670885cc97e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 6,516$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 4,059$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.34 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,916$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 2,143$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…09a8backed Yes | 25c | 1,419$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 78c | 1,362$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 1c | 999.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…78f7backed Yes | 11c | 903.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…0731backed Yes | 26c | 893.22$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 5c | 737.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 74c | 554.99$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…a6dbbacked Yes | 3c | 530.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…f02ebacked Yes | 9c | 511.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 506.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 500.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 15c | 431.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 77c | 420$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 410$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 406.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…08bdbacked No | 79c | 371.69$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 26c | 370.87$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Yes | 6c | 327$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 310$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 76c | 294.53$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…4bacbacked Yes | 36c | 276.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 16c | 199$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed Yes | 16c | 186$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 29c | 155$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed No | 71c | 155$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed No | 67c | 153$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 77c | 149.58$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 138.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb7…a2f9backed Yes | 24c | 129.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 121.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…bf1dbacked No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 68c | 117$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 116.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 68c | 114.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…3bc8backed Yes | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…1439backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 48c | 96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c2e6backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d87…7d5ebacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…9e4dbacked No | 70c | 42.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7918…3bedbacked No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 78c | 36.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 72c | 31.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…261bbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 75c | 25.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a0…77d8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fc…5382backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e564backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…98bcbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…7062backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…c890backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.