Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8ce144f21b0307f1e442ab5b64fa2d621677ad9117cdaefffa3bca532ad394d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 15c | 25,144$3,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,711.35 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fa…8be6backed Yes | 2c | 9,385$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…3ae1backed Yes | 3c | 5,098$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d05…7951backed Yes | 3c | 3,741$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 12c | 3,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 18cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes | 2c | 3,200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…92b1backed No | 10c | 2,950$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +391.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c1…ee04backed Yes | 1c | 2,945$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 3c | 2,764$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,669$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…6a46backed Yes | 2c | 2,627$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…1e8bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,433$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…eff2backed Yes | 2c | 2,285$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,240$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ff…e9b3backed Yes | 1c | 2,204$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed Yes | 1c | 1,645$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 4c | 1,397$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e7…3ba9backed Yes | 2c | 1,362$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6455…9099backed Yes | 2c | 1,197$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…16a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,159$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +476.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…efebbacked Yes | 2c | 980.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 13c | 957$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 13c | 863$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 858.7$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…4a56backed Yes | 1c | 819.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…1c56backed No | 16c | 781$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 13c | 777$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ae…92d7backed Yes | 2c | 717.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee6…7634backed No | 7c | 677.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +577.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 16c | 647.18$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 9c | 638.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 13c | 573$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed No | 13c | 571$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…6530backed Yes | 46c | 564.88$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…f842backed Yes | 6c | 560.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…a882backed Yes | 2c | 543.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…76bebacked Yes | 2c | 528.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 13c | 512$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 11c | 510$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed No | 20c | 499.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed No | 15c | 472.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +587.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 13c | 468.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed No | 8c | 466.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +397.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 401.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.39 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d41…2dfabacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x346f…cdf3backed Yes | 9c | 393.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…53b6backed No | 12c | 362.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +762.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 14c | 319$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 13c | 277$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…26e0backed No | 13c | 263$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed No | 16c | 248.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 17c | 209.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 14c | 208.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.57 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 208.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.96 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed No | 13c | 206$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…46bbbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 14c | 197.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cf…a6cdbacked Yes | 70c | 192.65$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 59c | 170.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 30c | 169.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…ac34backed No | 9c | 166.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 13c | 164$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 58c | 135.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…baf3backed No | 12c | 134.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +311.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 37c | 128$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 126.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.59 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 67c | 124.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 122.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 13c | 122$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…a044backed No | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 118.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13e…ce20backed No | 15c | 101.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +575.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 71c | 100.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 39cpaid | +208%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…cd11backed No | 15c | 97.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed No | 13c | 78.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +655.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…7a3fbacked No | 43c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc0…fab9backed Yes | 57c | 76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed No | 19c | 70.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…ff9cbacked No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked No | 22c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 62.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 56.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…e65abacked Yes | 77c | 51.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 73c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…f073backed Yes | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 150 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 40 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.