Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1481118004eb2bbaf0d9eaafc22752148df82811eddb1263604060dc776e93bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,205$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f0…eb1dbacked No | 8c | 2,802$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…92b1backed No | 3c | 2,047$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +391.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 1,465$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed No | 8c | 1,212$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 8c | 1,175$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…6f61backed No | 9c | 1,141$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 7c | 1,138$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9832…6e4dbacked No | 2c | 1,055$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…a044backed No | 17c | 1,050$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 2c | 1,015$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee6…7634backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +577.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c2…ab5cbacked No | 6c | 923.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0127…e308backed No | 6c | 896.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 818.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 737.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed No | 3c | 723.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 63c | 586.77$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 28c | 554$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.22 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 3c | 527.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 3c | 486.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 460.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…b36cbacked No | 13c | 361.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 340.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 325.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked No | 63c | 317.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…7167backed No | 8c | 315.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…387fbacked No | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0d…4affbacked Yes | 74c | 290$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…3c60backed No | 18c | 280.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 258.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked No | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…ac34backed No | 7c | 228.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed No | 24c | 206.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf04c…b823backed No | 65c | 152.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…6cd5backed No | 29c | 139.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…cd11backed No | 7c | 134.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed No | 14c | 130.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…9d49backed Yes | 78c | 128.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…c67fbacked No | 14c | 124.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3f…91e6backed Yes | 67c | 119.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…dc5dbacked No | 17c | 118.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…eef4backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3531backed No | 45c | 89.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…72dabacked Yes | 68c | 80.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 67c | 79.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 76.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 67c | 74.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b8…dc5abacked No | 17c | 67.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96a3…e080backed Yes | 77c | 64.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 73c | 63.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…026ebacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dda…a4a3backed Yes | 59c | 46.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…530abacked No | 45c | 44.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…5d74backed Yes | 50c | 40.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…3032backed No | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 49c | 30.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…fcddbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…afd9backed Yes | 72c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb706…b12bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce5…bfb7backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…da5ebacked No | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…1c56backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 150 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 40 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.