Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1232e95b934853096f9d310876e61587741a77eac61e917d15ad5ac5d9969c11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 6c | 2,889$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 73c | 2,478$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.84 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6455…9099backed Yes | 1c | 1,503$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,438$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 75c | 1,207$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 991.07$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…6530backed Yes | 5c | 961.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 3c | 792.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 77c | 758.18$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.89 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cb…fe65backed Yes | 30c | 730.93$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…1c56backed Yes | 39c | 714.56$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…dabebacked Yes | 28c | 577.18$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…5253backed Yes | 6c | 511.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…b5b5backed Yes | 5c | 468.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 15c | 440$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a6…9a77backed Yes | 26c | 420.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634f…25bfbacked Yes | 29c | 359.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd012…6f38backed Yes | 33c | 359.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a3…e080backed Yes | 26c | 335.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…a044backed No | 69c | 306.11$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…bccdbacked Yes | 5c | 297.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 7c | 284.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…239dbacked Yes | 5c | 283.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 282.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 26c | 265.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed No | 77c | 260.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 27c | 250$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked No | 73c | 249.54$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…641fbacked Yes | 14c | 224.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed Yes | 20c | 217.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d22…e2bbbacked Yes | 38c | 217.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 32c | 211.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…561dbacked Yes | 32c | 162.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef9…bdafbacked Yes | 11c | 150.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…fa4fbacked Yes | 34c | 146.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 16c | 123.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 69c | 120.25$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 37c | 111.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…0d8fbacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 71c | 107.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cf…a6cdbacked Yes | 16c | 104.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 103$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…6da4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…3819backed Yes | 43c | 98.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 94.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…a3febacked Yes | 27c | 75.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…b36cbacked No | 73c | 72.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…720ebacked Yes | 27c | 67.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…7437backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…e65abacked No | 74c | 53.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 71c | 48.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed No | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 43.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc43c…a74abacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a0…2e65backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 38.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…c67fbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…3032backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 150 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 40 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.