Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x548351ee0382298ccf10442e3a0625357b631d2ba5b0f30ccfbf96974e01a6c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 24c | 7,933$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.38 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 50c | 2,000$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +210%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 49c | 1,823$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.03 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…1c56backed No | 57c | 1,291$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,225$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 50c | 1,198$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed No | 54c | 1,179$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb650…a52bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,127$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,029$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked No | 64c | 1,021$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +476.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 36c | 997$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 64c | 867$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 53c | 825$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 37c | 729$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 720.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 47c | 670$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.84 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 36c | 613$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 36c | 613$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…8df1backed No | 64c | 613$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 64c | 592$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…4674backed Yes | 36c | 579$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610f…1edabacked Yes | 46c | 579$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…f7a5backed No | 64c | 566$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 55c | 543.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 517.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 74c | 517.02$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 36c | 516$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked No | 63c | 468$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed No | 63c | 463$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 63c | 451$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked No | 64c | 442$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked Yes | 36c | 426$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked No | 64c | 426$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…9184backed No | 63c | 425$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 54c | 407$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 55c | 382.28$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.93 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 50c | 380.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…7e2ebacked Yes | 46c | 376$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed Yes | 50c | 341$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 50c | 341$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 43c | 340$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed Yes | 36c | 328$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 55c | 301.32$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 36c | 288$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 54c | 274$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…f958backed No | 63c | 238$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 64c | 236$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 58c | 234.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 39cpaid | +208%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 67c | 188.72$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…d8c5backed No | 54c | 178$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 36c | 177$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194c…4302backed Yes | 54c | 165.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed Yes | 37c | 159$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 55c | 130.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 37c | 128$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 126.18$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 36c | 126$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 64c | 121$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…336bbacked No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 112.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 50c | 109.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed Yes | 47c | 108$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 53c | 105.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a2…5521backed No | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 64c | 89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Yes | 49c | 81.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…e65abacked Yes | 50c | 79.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 52c | 62.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…3ae6backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 55.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…baf3backed Yes | 45c | 54.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +311.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…4eb2backed No | 50c | 46.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…6785backed Yes | 54c | 46.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…8f19backed Yes | 51c | 46.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…25febacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ae…92d7backed Yes | 44c | 37.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…df6ebacked No | 49c | 32.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…4624backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 70c | 30.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7d…a592backed No | 53c | 30.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…b5d1backed Yes | 50c | 30.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 29.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Yes | 48c | 29.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 27.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe124…9d4ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…6531backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9377…2461backed No | 57c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 150 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 40 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.