Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4e5c7c55449acdb4d0195410a7a5bfb10c1f03c563c4da87e8d9961cf775a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd802…e262backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,934$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 3,562$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked No | 1c | 3,352$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…6cd5backed No | 10c | 2,012$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 10c | 1,362$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.23 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 26c | 1,207$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.74 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 1,040$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 77c | 935.22$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…cd11backed No | 3c | 753.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…a044backed No | 7c | 686.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…35c0backed No | 4c | 677.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…9821backed No | 2c | 625.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 21c | 597.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.35 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 6c | 507.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…b196backed No | 5c | 485.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 405.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…026ebacked Yes | 68c | 378.55$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 3c | 368.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 3c | 342.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +140%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…f9d9backed No | 7c | 289.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 250.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 9c | 206.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 23c | 107.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cff…1c15backed Yes | 70c | 41.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…7160backed Yes | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…5d74backed Yes | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 150 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 40 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.