Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34d40779ea68af4376f8eab66bfa196ecb550ee358732381b56277706d5d71dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,875$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 15c | 909$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…08f7backed Yes | 16c | 773$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 15c | 733$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 15c | 717$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 15c | 670$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 9c | 644.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 14c | 595$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 18c | 573$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 16c | 569$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed Yes | 15c | 536$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c1…6512backed Yes | 14c | 530$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes | 14c | 457$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 15c | 432$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 15c | 427$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 5c | 412.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…6530backed Yes | 14c | 363.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed Yes | 15c | 334$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed Yes | 15c | 316$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 14c | 249$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 17c | 240.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…026ebacked No | 75c | 221.73$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed Yes | 49c | 207.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 153$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…bccdbacked Yes | 10c | 142.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 62c | 135.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 16c | 133$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…5253backed Yes | 15c | 117.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 19c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ae…92d7backed Yes | 20c | 101.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef9…bdafbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 80.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 25c | 79.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cf…a6cdbacked Yes | 41c | 50.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c57…cd91backed No | 74c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 150 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 40 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.