World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f9f6f8565db7181bd076105872034ee702bc04818390e37b0af09be477e77c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 49c | 864$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 51c | 864$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 63c | 644$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc0…fab9backed Yes | 54c | 556$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 44c | 499.33$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.63 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 37c | 490$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 55c | 460.76$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.06 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked Yes | 49c | 419$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 54c | 402$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 64c | 299$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed Yes | 54c | 282$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 55c | 260.39$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 51c | 222$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No | 51c | 197$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed No | 46c | 132$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 57c | 124$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 119.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 52c | 65.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Yes | 52c | 60.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 53.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed No | 49c | 48.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…fb3fbacked Yes | 57c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4660…cda2backed No | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 48c | 35.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…fb45backed No | 45c | 35.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 45c | 34.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…2d88backed Yes | 55c | 31.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…54fcbacked No | 48c | 31.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 52c | 31.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…c1d7backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked No | 75c | 28.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 49c | 26.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 46c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 23.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "BMA" or "British Medical Association" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kneecap" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Passover" or "Easter" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Public Health" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Renewables" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "War" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.