World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4d7af60fd0cd4fc1a6860a4e9c68c07aa44b170f67ec361feec51ede437bb39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb407…a978backed No | 56c | 1,932$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…fc69backed Yes | 43c | 1,623$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed Yes | 58c | 1,120$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +284.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed Yes | 58c | 1,095$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +131.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 42c | 923$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 42c | 869$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863b…7c6fbacked No | 42c | 819$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 44c | 753$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.68 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 57c | 747$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.79 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked Yes | 44c | 716$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed No | 57c | 683$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +261.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 57c | 633$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 43c | 622$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.54 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 44c | 463$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 43c | 440$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 58c | 396$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 57c | 222$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed No | 57c | 205$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked No | 57c | 195$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 33c | 36.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…e3ddbacked Yes | 79c | 13.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "BMA" or "British Medical Association" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kneecap" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Passover" or "Easter" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Public Health" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Renewables" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "War" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.