World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf1274b2f04186ebcf58b2ce3002fc473bd5d6bf7e7d163bd43d44a7859e05b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 25c | 2,349$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,451$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed No | 75c | 945$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 75c | 917$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 76c | 728$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 76c | 723$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 75c | 487$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…22ebbacked Yes | 26c | 252.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 19c | 190.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed No | 78c | 169.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 76c | 164.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 131.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e68…9c9bbacked No | 78c | 127.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed No | 70c | 118.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 106.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed No | 75c | 95.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 74c | 77.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…716dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…fcc4backed Yes | 31c | 64.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bc…5377backed No | 78c | 64.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…6d96backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 45.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 29c | 40.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a8…3f5bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 62c | 18.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "BMA" or "British Medical Association" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kneecap" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Passover" or "Easter" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Public Health" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Renewables" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "War" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.