World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c9995da16a406ee7055d519673b084204e361c25a0ac0addcef5e2ff294f9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090c…3c25backed Yes | 11c | 1,359$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 56c | 1,002$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 56c | 948$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes | 11c | 788$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 44c | 684$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 44c | 637$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes | 44c | 629$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 5c | 256.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…6d96backed Yes | 11c | 142.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 17c | 115.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 21c | 49.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x319e…c608backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 79c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 80c | 18.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "BMA" or "British Medical Association" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kneecap" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Passover" or "Easter" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Public Health" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Renewables" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "War" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.