World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67853c84e5fcc2ac65cde5340219bc926d90686aae00976f8f72de339116894a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 52c | 634$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 48c | 634$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 43c | 420.24$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.04 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 45c | 224.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 60c | 197.49$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c87…3aebbacked Yes | 40c | 189.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed Yes | 61c | 164.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…5462backed Yes | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 55c | 100.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 87.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd131…9422backed Yes | 58c | 86.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8419…4d80backed Yes | 43c | 80.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…3efdbacked No | 56c | 80.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 42c | 64.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 36c | 50.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 55c | 50.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 44c | 45.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb3…6330backed Yes | 54c | 36.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked No | 56c | 34.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 44c | 34.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 45c | 31.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…a7c7backed Yes | 79c | 27.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 55c | 25.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…8f61backed Yes | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 54c | 24.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "BMA" or "British Medical Association" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kneecap" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Passover" or "Easter" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Public Health" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Renewables" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "War" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.