World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecca1f97a1a020ea68f6974b127ff29143dcb9aa244def83620b98827c35b8cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1128…ed15backed No | 14c | 6,720$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,779.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.90per pick | 11cpaid | +971.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 29c | 674.3$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.07 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed No | 43c | 614$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed No | 35c | 582$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 65c | 582$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes | 73c | 568.23$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 23c | 280$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 77c | 270.11$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 57c | 217$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 57c | 203$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 57c | 194$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Yes | 63c | 128.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Yes | 57c | 84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 72c | 60.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 65c | 60.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1132…31bcbacked Yes | 74c | 54.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf571…d2dcbacked No | 26c | 46.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +285.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 41c | 34.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb34a…6e39backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…54fcbacked No | 43c | 27.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 42c | 25.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 50c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b36…5f5ebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 54c | 19.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 66c | 19.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 69c | 17.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…e3ddbacked Yes | 75c | 14.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "BMA" or "British Medical Association" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kneecap" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Passover" or "Easter" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Public Health" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Renewables" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "War" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.