World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaead70b948cd188e14eb7d501e14dfc01fd5b71a018142fc9fcbb909ed22cc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed No | 15c | 2,808$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked No | 13c | 1,324$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 13c | 1,312$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed No | 13c | 1,223$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 14c | 889$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 14c | 871$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 14c | 838$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +226.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 14c | 578$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 14c | 540$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 14c | 539$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked No | 73c | 398.33$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 12c | 268.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 64c | 249.93$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +348.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 12c | 208$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed No | 13c | 186$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…4020backed No | 14c | 176.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed No | 13c | 159$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 156$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 10c | 138.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…aecebacked No | 14c | 129.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 79c | 125.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked No | 17c | 118.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 60c | 92.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 89.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 13c | 87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 13c | 84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 14c | 74.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5d…b090backed No | 14c | 70.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 68.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…54fcbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "BMA" or "British Medical Association" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Kneecap" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Passover" or "Easter" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Public Health" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Renewables" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "War" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.